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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (42042)	2/11/2001 4:02:25 PM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 70976

Mike It is ALL about predicting the future. NOBODY does it well. 8) There ARE some major problems and excesses that had to be worked through. Not in the least is the energy problem where I talked to someone last week that told me of people paying more for their power then for their mortgage (in Louisiana NOT California!) There people at $30,000 a year are making a comfortable salary and a $100 monthly increase in power bills will impact how much they have to spend. I think this is killing consumer confidence. Of course, THIS WILL END when we get more supplies online and we'll probably have an energy glut in 2 years just like we get IC gluts after large shortages. The best indicator I heard of from that past is "BUY when they are laying off". I bought AMAT when this happend in 1996 and then I added to LRCX in 1998. After these buys, I told the guy who is NOW the VP of Agilent Semiconductor that I had bought these and he thought I was nuts. Of course, NOW we know how good buying when layoffs are announced works. Odds... I look at perhaps 50% downside and upside.... only limited by how many years you hold before you take profits out. I have to head off to a cyber chat: suite101.com come visit us if you like! Kirk out