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Technology Stocks : METRICOM - Wireless Data Communications -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rrufff who wrote (3111)	2/11/2001 5:12:48 PM
From: Paul Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3376

I don't like your odds which is why I will not be long. Let me explain. You say that there is no reason for dilution. I don't understand your conclusion. The new money, if it comes, will be equity money not debt money. Nobody will give them debt money anymore. The number of shares outstanding WILL increase. That means that if you own x% of the company today, you will own less than x% after the new cheap shares are issued. Lets say that the company needs $450 million. At Friday's stock price that means they will need to issue 100 million new shares. Maybe Paul Allen or Worldcon will buy the new shares and THEIR ownership won't be diluted but your ownership % will be. You will own much less of the company than you did last week. Don't assume that the people that are shorting the stock are all stupid. Also don't assume that Worldcon or Paul Allen care if you lose while they win. Your downside is 100% (as you have noted). It is very unclear what your upside is since every decline in the stock makes raising equity money more dilutive. Yes, I did mean "tidal" not "tital." Again, my OPINION only. I am neither long nor short MCOM. It will be interesting to watch this play out.