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To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (117486)	2/11/2001 7:44:25 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164687

The fed could be as unsure as the rest of us about the strength of the economy. Oil prices and the spillover into the energy complex are what stalled the economy -- energy prices are so highly correlated with economic growth that it is not even funny -- interest rates are a distant second. By September it was obvious we would have a sharp slowdown going into the winter -- as I posted repeatedly while some no-nothing on the new economy thread insisted that energy was irrelevant. Now that the slowdown is here, it is really, really hard to call monetary policy. Frankly I think AG will take a chance and keep cutting rates even if he is unsure of the extent of the slowdown. The energy complex continues to be all screwed up and once an economy slows it can easily turn into a train wreck -- so if money supply growth is slow right now, I expect it is merely a pause.

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (117486)	2/11/2001 11:09:08 PM
From: The Reaper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164687

<So why would the Fed be putting the breaks on now?> I don't know. That's a question Uncle Al alone can answer. They were however providing liquidity well before they lowered rates in that surprise move in Jan. As far as your TV appearance... thought you came across as someone with a legitimate beef, not as sour grapes. I can't imagine the brokerage not allowing a position to turn into a short against the box. I'm curious as to the specific reason they wouldn't allow you to keep the short position while buying long to hedge the short, keeping both positions open until you were ready to close out one side or the other. Was it a question of margin/buying power? The report just said that the broker termed the position "illegal". That's got to be misreported since it's not. kirby