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Strategies & Market Trends : The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Woody who wrote (38478)	2/11/2001 11:19:29 PM
From: Doug R	Respond to of 79450

Woody, Looking over those hits I found one to go down as a grand-daddy in the annals of IL history. The ACT on DAVX occurred from 3/22/99 to 3/31/99. T1 was 1/28/99 L2 was 10/6/98 DAVX violated the IL on 2/26/00 and peaked at $39 five days later. The IL was violated at $34. The ACT was set at $6. DAVX returned to the ACT which was at 10 7/8 on 6/13/00. 11 months from ACT to peak followed by 3 1/2 months from peak back to ACT. Typical timeframe from peak to ACT is 1/3 to 2/3 that of the initial run from ACT to peak. Most often it's 1/2 the time. DAVX return to ACT was 32% of the time. Classic stuff. Then DAVX showed that even though IL violators ALWAYS return to the ACT, the RR is not as consistent. RR went to 16 7/8, a 55% bounce, while the drop from peak to ACT was a 72% move. I have only one problem with all of this....I didn't catch it as it happened....grrrrrrr. And imagine trying to tell DAVX longs that the thing was going to drop nearly 30 points in 15 weeks...heheheh. Reminds me of the recent MTON Yahoo board melee. At this point DAVX is currently below the ACT (which rises over time) which will reach 13 1/2 in just over a week. The ACT has already recently shown itself to be soft resistance so it's reasonable to expect DAVX to break about 10% to 15% over it giving a target near 15. ok...got it? Doug R