Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: el paradisio who wrote (68974)	2/12/2001 10:49:20 AM
From: Doug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

El: You were out on CSCO and QQQ at 60. I see you have now lowered QQQ by 5. The earnings growth will be less than 10%.; 15% at best. For those type of earnings, you cannot have pie in the sky valuations. Interest rates have no effect on Tech stocks because in the main interest rates are not the problem. The problem is over capacity and over competition. You dont get more chips/sq inch or more bytes/inch of cable and near free long dist/calls w/o competition. That competition whilst good for the consumer ultimately leads to excess capacity and downsizing . There is no large consumer mkt for a Pentuim 4 at 1.5Ghz. but they keep producing it out of fear of being left behind. The NAZ will only recover when there is an earnings preannouncement/announcement from a market leader such as CSCO/INTL/IBM that is positive. That is unlikely in the ist half of this year. Before that happens you will see more blood and a lot more consolidation.