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Technology Stocks : SDLI - JDSU transition -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (12)	2/12/2001 5:11:05 AM
From: Baton	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3294

Pat: Thanks for the new thread. Re Flex and the other contract manufacturers. At one time or another, I've had small positions in FLEX, SLR and CLS. I am currently out of all three, but have kept my eye on FLEX. That stock really popped about 8-10 months ago when they announced a large (I think it was 5 BILLION!) contract with MOT. Before I re-entered, I would want to do a little research to make sure the recent MOT slowdown did not impact their relationship w/ FLEX. I also remember the FLEX CEO stating recently that a slowdown actually helped the contract manufacturers as it was cheaper to outsource than to build inhouse. Here's to hoping this new thread marks a bottom and a new long upward trend for JDSU/SDLI! Isn't today the official shareholder approval day? Baton Baton

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (12)	2/12/2001 10:16:23 AM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3294

OT celestica has been considered the fiber play out of that group, for quite a while. I just think flex has better numbers, and I liked management better.Some of the boys at Montgomery seem to like slr best, because it is cheapest, but they haven't executed well compared to flex. My worry would be what effect the first half slowdown would have on the outsourcers. Secondly, if JDS and SDL are bringing on new capacity, will this change their needs re FLEX? And, finally, if outsourcing does continue to grow, at what point would you take a position? In other words, where on the food chain are they in terms of feeling the effects of any slowdown? I'm definitely interested in FLEX based on their numbers and their recent acquisitions. Having already acquired Photonic Packaging Technologies, they now own Wave Optics and Fico Fiber Optics. From BOFA report: * 40-50% of the cost of optical components is in the packaging. [In high-end actives it's 80%] FLEX is strategicallly targeting this with customers. RHK supposedly estimates that the optical packaging industry will reach $26 billion in 2004, up from $4 billion last year. The packaging revenue opportunity would therefore be about $10 billion in that year. * FLEX picks up either deeper or new relationships with the six top optical components makers (we believe this means JDS, Nortel, Lucent and Alcatel, among others). It also picks up two additional optical systems customers it did not have already. When FLEX announced its PPT acquisition last October, it announced it had over 24 optical-related customers (including Alcatel, Cyras, Ericsson, Extreme, Lucent, Optical Access, Siemens and Perkin Elmer) and that it was expecting to do $2.5 billion in optical-related revenue in 2001. >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Pat