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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (6541)	2/13/2001 1:17:52 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

Rydex Total Assets Update for Monday, February 12th 2001: Regular Series: SPX Long - NOVA 371.2 Million SPX Short- URSA 243.8 Million NDX Long - OTC 1,709 BILLION NDX Short- Arktos 72.7 Million XAU Precious Metals 29.5 Million Banking 88.3 Million Biotechnology 463 Million Money Market 713 Millionnew 52 week low *************************************** Dynamic Series (200% correlation) SPX Long - TITAN 54.9 Million SPX Short- TEMPEST 38.6 Million NDX Long - VELOCITY 146.3 Million NDX Short- VENTURE 43.1 Million ***************************************** At first glance, these rydex numbers look quite confusing and paint a dichotomous picture in the market. A fork in the road sentiment-wise. 1)Money Market levels have hit a new 52 week low. This is obviously BEARISH as a stand alone indicator. The dramatic 1 day drop in TA - over 400 million no less that got redeployed... Where did the money go? The plain vanilla net long and net short funds total assets both actually decreased. It went exclusively into sector funds. I will have to call trading again tomorrow to confirm there is no error in this money market number. 2)Both the regular and dynamic SPX Long/Short Funds TA gap has narrowed tremendously in the past week. Compare the ratios today to the first few trading days in February and you see critical difference in the spread contraction. BULLISH. 3)NDX Long OTC is now less than 100 million TA from a new 52 week low. The 20%+ 2,001 tech rally has been derailed back to breakeven and after last weeks bloodbath, they are screaming to get out for safer pastures. BULLISH. ************************************************** Now I am going to switch from Rydex to the DOW/BKX market. I state unequivocably that the DOW is going to set a new high at DOW 11,900+ before people know what has happened. I have also stated BKX strength is going to lead and move in tandem with the DOW. I thought we would get one more move back to this BKX 898-902 level intraday test one last time before take-off. While this is still a possibility, it is becoming a more remote chance by the day. BKX 1,000+ is only a stones throw away. I see BKX 1,200 as not out of the realm of possiblity intraday high test sometime in late March. The BKX read has always been the MITA specialty and nobody has called it better going back to BKX 780 ad nauseum: siliconinvestor.com Today we closed at BKX 944.68 up 14 points. The monthly charts scream break-out: stockcharts.com[l,a]mahlyymy[p][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9] Here is a plain vanilla monthly roundabout courtesy of wolanchuk.com village2000.com This weekly chart shows we have been in this defined trading range for more than 3 years: siliconinvestor.com The daily chart show the 5 day rsi at a paltry 56.92 and we are less than 24 points from an all time high BKX 968.16 set on January 30th. charts-d.quote.com:443/982044356130?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=INDEX:BKX.X&Interval=D&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=0&Study=RSI&Param1=5&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&BgColor=0.255.0&TBgColor=0.255.0 The 60 minute chart with OBV: charts-d.quote.com:443/982045023640?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=INDEX:BKX.X&Interval=60&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=0&Study=OBV&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&BgColor=0.255.0&TBgColor=0.255.0 First target BKX 1,020 intraday high by Thursday close. Best Regards, J.T.

To: J.T. who wrote (6541)	2/13/2001 2:37:45 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 19219

Rydex Total Assets Update for Monday, February 12th 2001(revised): Regular Series: SPX Long - NOVA 490.1 Million SPX Short- URSA 215.4 Million NDX Long - OTC 1,795 BILLION NDX Short- Arktos 70.8 Million XAU Precious Metals 29.5 Million Banking 88.3 Million Biotechnology 463 Million Money Market 792 Millionnew 52 week low *************************************** Dynamic Series (200% correlation) SPX Long - TITAN 108.3 Million SPX Short- TEMPEST 27.9 Million NDX Long - VELOCITY 159.9 Million NDX Short- VENTURE 41.6 Million ******************************************* Disregard MITA post 6,551- Bad Data. Bad rydex data is like bad or delayed quotes: It ain't worth squat if it ain't right. These updated numbers have much more BEARISH implications over the nearterm than last nights report. And in light of the fact we are in option expiration week, games are gona get played and da big boys are going to defend against out of the money strike prices into Friday. That means we could be up one day and down the next until we get "clean" into next week. This means stocks like QCOM which had great news today might not run hard north of 90 until next week as OTM option plays are left for dead worthless.... Now I am going to switch from Rydex to the DOW/BKX market. I state unequivocably that the DOW is going to set a new high at DOW 11,900+ before people know what has happened. I have also stated BKX strength is going to lead and move in tandem with the DOW. I thought we would get one more move back to this BKX 898-902 level intraday test one last time before take-off. While this is still a possibility, it is becoming a more remote chance by the day. BKX 1,000+ is only a stones throw away. I see BKX 1,200 as not out of the realm of possiblity intraday high test sometime in late March. The BKX read has always been the MITA specialty and nobody has called it better going back to BKX 780 ad nauseum: siliconinvestor.com. Today we closed at BKX 944.68 up 14 points. The monthly charts scream break-out: stockcharts.com[l,a]mahl... Here is a plain vanilla monthly roundabout courtesy of wolanchuk.com village2000.com This weekly chart shows we have been in this defined trading range for more than 3 years: charts-d.quote.com:443/982093330230?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=INDEX:BKX.X&Interval=30&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=0&Study=&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&BgColor=0.255.0&TBgColor=0.255.0 The daily chart show the 5 day rsi at a paltry 56.92 and we are less than 24 points from an all time high BKX 968.16 set on January 30th. charts-d.quote.com:443/982044356130?User=demo&Pswd=de... The 60 minute chart with OBV: charts-d.quote.com:443/982045023640?User=demo&Pswd=de... First target BKX 1,020 next week. Best Regards, J.T.