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To: Think4Yourself who wrote (86929)	2/12/2001 1:04:29 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

JQP: First, Charlie Maxwell, then IEA ? How about a little common sense for once "Q" ? ... I would think the commentary here would NOT be that the IEA is wrong - or bearish, or even that they are spin doctoring for what-ever reason; but rather that they were so slow on the uptake on something so fundamentally obvious ! DUHHHH ! - a rapidly slowing US economy is leading to rapidly slowing Oil demand.... no $hit $herlock ~ A Slowing US Economy & a US Manufacturing Recession is allready acknowledged as a given; thus Oil demand slowing is also pretty much a given; is it not ? And since thanks to Rubin & Greenpimp's Fiat Dollar; we are buying the world's goods here at the rate of a negative $1 Billion per day deficit; let us slow down our buying... and not that our negative saving rate & reckless debt load might do that; but it's also pretty much a given that the USA is the Dog that ultimately wags the global demand-tail... The first realistic scenario for "cheating" is forming within OPEC... let Oil drop down to the low-mid $20's at these lower production quota's and compare that revenue to what the various OPEC countries were getting back at full throttle & $35+ Crude... then see if Venezeula et al are going to just take that haircut standing still...or, if someone moves for US market share. OPEC will be tested shortly... they just might hold together; but if the circumstances for them not to were to ever occur - it will be shortly. That's why I've kept pounding the table on being able to sneak in one last major OSX rally in under the April Q1 Tech reporting & economic news which is NOT going to be good... We have a window of opportunity that is going to close rapidly; let's hope the mo-mo boys arrive as well - becasue without them - we will not hold support, let alone rally to new highs in April... And remember it was the Asian "DEMAND" Contagian that collapsed the last OSX rally at these levels and it happened directly into record earnings & a very, very bullish forward looking environment. The Street exited 9-12 months before earnings peaked in the OSX... for us to go to new highs, or sustain these levels; the Street has to see the cycle ( commodity prices) extending into 2H 2002-1H 2003. We've been in a very clear banded trading range for the OSX since last May when we hit 120; the Bollinger Band's & other technical indicators have been a pretty good buy/sell indicator and anyone who has continually sold into strength atop any 15-25 point runs and who has used stops to protect profits and sat patiently to buy back cheaper, or who has played the "rotate to laggards" game well - has done well. Those Perma-Bulls like we saw in the NG E&P's got to see their fair share of $20 to $30 and back to $20 round-trippers... This is mid-late cycle here folks; rollovers occur here. Rollover came hard & heavy in the spring of 1998 and the next one will be unexpected as well... as long as you take profits on all significant rallies & use stops to get out on sub-cycle rollovers - you'll keep making money... SLB.... just hammered here ? hmmmmm...