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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (3416)	2/12/2001 6:56:31 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4583

Hi Chip, I thought the Naz was anemic for a Dow Rally + 165. Light volume on the naz adv/decl 20-18 (53 new lows) up volume close to down volume I'm not convinced. We're definitely coming out of oversold territory - so a bounce was expected.But the earth didn't open up and rock the world with gutteral bullish sounds.ggggg I still think the best emotion out there is a shake out caused by a doubtful recovery.Rate cuts are nice - (in July).Earnings and jobs will be questioned until then. Dell and Amat will announce this week - Amat tomorrow after the close how Morgan presents future earnings will be important.They have pre-announced a shortfall of revenue due to pushouts and Fasb101 will impact this quarter. Their equipment is complex and takes longer to install so there may be a more impactful reduction in earnings with Amat ( cohu was only .01 ,but their equipment goes in quickly). So eps announcements and the poor vision offered up in the next 2 qtrs will be a headline tomorrow and whenever Dell does its thing (they've announced plans to make layoffs here in Tx) - sounds like a longer term vision than simply working down a distribution channel - heck they don't have inventory - maybe : maybe now even Dell has inventory - we'll see. Most of my stocks have a fast stochastic that is still dragging down the slow stochastic and a reversal hasn't shown itself yet. Longer term 30-45 days, I think we can shake out - more likely than pop to new highs. No FA, No volume, just a dead cat bounce in the Naz. BWDIK Bob P.S. Vix has snuck it's ugly head up to 26 the last 2 days.Granted it lost its bloom as the dow rally took off-but a close at 24.55 is close to going up in volatility any minute bad news hits. Vix at 24.55 when the dow popped 165 and was strong all day-Naz down most of day and up at end on light volume.What's wrong with this picture?? MEEOOWWWWWWW