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To: Sonny McWilliams who wrote (26781)	2/14/2001 3:05:25 AM
From: William Hunt	Respond to of 27012

Hello Sonny ( I am pretty sure the DOW is looking for Mr. A.G. to say good things tomorrow when he goes to the hill. ) Well he fail again . He did not say anything that made a whole lot of sense ---as a matter of fact what the man said makes me feel he really needs to step down . The statement we are not in a recession is a bunch of horse hockey . The comment that we are in a 15% recession is great if you are not part of the 15% recession . Productivity is being maintain at a 2.5% rate is due to the massive layoffs we are having in the economy and these are in what I considered the good jobs area not the service industry that pays 7.00 an hour . Instead of providing liquidity for capital investment to increase productivity through technology the man sits up front of Congress and uses double talk ( ala BILL CLINTON )to waffle through the presentation that we really do not have a good feel for what is happening to the economy . This whole fiasco started with the FED fighting an .8 % in inflation increase in oil prices last year ---well yesterday oil close above 30.00 a barrel ---so much for their fighting inflation . He is killing capital investment in telecomunication ( high interest rates and tight liquidity ) so do not expect a rebound anytime soon in WCOM , NOK , QCOM ,TXN ,NT . I do not mind investing in companies with good products that enhance productivity and are competitive in the market place but I do not expect to have the companies destroyed by the FED over something they cannot control ( OIL PRICES ) I hope I have learn some valuable lessons from all this like stop loss , preserving profits , long term buy and hold does not work in such a fast pace information environment ,etc. Would not buy MO at these prices ( I work for RJR for five years in the eighties ) . The value in these companies are discounted with most of the value going to the food group ---most of the free cash flow from tobacco is going to litigation costs and settlements . Food products are in vogue right now as a defensive play in this market but as we know that can turn on a dime plus their growth prospects are limited in a mature market for food products . BEST WISHES BILL

To: Sonny McWilliams who wrote (26781)	2/14/2001 3:33:31 AM
From: William Hunt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27012

Sonny ---what is your thoughts on EMULEX vs EMC ? from briefing.com this morning : In Thomas Cronin's book "The State of the Presidency," he describes a humorous scene in which Lyndon Johnson greets Richard Nixon at the airport and gives him a great big hug. After Nixon leaves, LBJ's aide looks at him curiously and says 'I didn't think you liked Mr. Nixon.' To which Johnson replied, 'son, in this business you need to learn that a person can go from chicken s--t to chicken salad overnight, and vice-versa.' Though meant as a quick lesson in politics, investors can learn something from LBJ as well... Take Emulex (EMLX) for example... Two days ago it was still an investor favorite... Then the company surprises the street with cautionary guidance and wham, sellers take it down 46%... Brocade (BRCD), PMC-Sierra (PMCS), Applied Micro Circuits (AMCC), Cisco (CSCO) and Ariba (ARBA) have made similarly quick trips from the penthouse to the doghouse... The speed in which sentiment and prices change in today's market, is one reason why investors need to constantly remind themselves to separate the story from the stock... My colleague Bob Green has written several recent Stock Briefs on this very point alone. Though the kind of volatility we have seen in recent weeks can unnerve an investor, it can also create very good trading opportunities for the more nimble, risk-tolerant types... The recent bloodbath in the storage area is likely to represent just such a short-term opportunity, as the group and its major component issues are now oversold... Given the scope of the declines in EMLX and BRCD, for example, Briefing.com expects both stocks to stage sizable corrective rallies in the days and weeks to come... Similar opportunities for short-term spikes exist in beaten down chip names such as PMCS, AMCC, TranSwitch (TXCC) and Broadcom (BRCM). All of these one-time, high-flyers are now technically oversold. That doesn't necessarily mean that they've bottomed, just that the bias over the near-term is likely to turn more positive... As bargain hunting lifts these stocks, the rest of the Nasdaq should follow. BEST WISHES BILL