To: Jenna who wrote (4414 ) 2/12/2001 5:11:40 PM From: Jenna Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6445 Techno-Fundamental analysis TOGETHER superior to technical or fundamental analysis by themselves. Without fundamental analysis how would we have the confidence to hold some of our earnings plays overnight 1, 2, 3 and more days. The best plays we have chosen this months are those that had good earnings reports which were REFLECTED in the resultant good chart patterns and not vice versa. We think we are picking up LNCR, AXTI, or UTSI because of technicals, but they would not be moving this well at all based on just chart reading. You have only look at the sagging miserable charts of SDLI, JNPR, VRSN, ONIS, NUFO, NTAP, BRCD, BRCM etc. to see that although we're expecting a technical bottom and calculating circles, squares, cycles, triangles, pitchforks and fans, we are just proving that its the weak fundamentals, the overpriced and overvaluations, the low profit margins, over supply and not enough demand,that are keeping and will most likely to keep these low. Fans are not going to find the bottom, nor are points & figures, or anything except having these stocks finally settle into low p/e's and suddenly and miraculously as if by magic, everyone will be saying "Yep, the gann found a bottom, or the pitchfork" The pitchform might be lucky to pick out a 'scalp' but not any pattern with any staying power. These stocks will be buys once they naturally settle into acceptable valuation levels that will bring in buyers, nothing less. If the Fed hadn't intervened artificially, these charts would never had that bounce in January and if left to natural selection. BRCD, BRCM and others...We did like BRCM today, but as far as BRCD, BEAS and CIEN I would not hold them long overnight because they might look 'oversold'. BRCD did not even have the entire haircut, maybe tomorrow after an exhaustion move down in the morning, but from experience just because a day is down big doesn't mean the downside is over. I am flat BRCM and BRCD still maintain puts in BEAS and CIEN. But whatever wind blows on the others tomorrow, that's how I'll set my sail, you can't determine direction yet. Too much downside and support was taken out for much of a recovery that quickly. We are still smack in front of earnings for both BEAS and CIEN, I would not see this as good risk/reward tactics. For us to really consider these once again as long plays they will have to have valuations as attractive as the other plays we are picking up.