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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (1186)	2/13/2001 1:45:23 AM
From: Raymond Duray	Respond to of 12411

Hi Chip, Thanks a lot for pointing out John Pitera's thread. You better believed it took me a nanosecond to subjectmark it. :) Re: Massive Tax Cuts - Hmm, did you happen to see Bob Rubin's column in the Sunday NYTimes? nytimes.com Rubin is no fan of the Bush league payola-for-cronies plan. Neither am I. Not because I fear an inflationary hit, since this will be phased in over many years and won't really have an immediate impact. Banter about retro-activity notwithstanding. That ain't gonna happen. Unless it puts money into the pockets of the middle class for immediate consumption. To me..., the Government should cut the debt in half and then do tax cuts, or a combination. While I agree, I also realize this is frightfully naive. Remember Caroline Baum's description of the revolving door house-of-mirrors nature of the Federal debt? If the public debt is payed off, we still have a massive and unsustainable liability coming due in 2020 or so on the soon to be bankrupted Social Security and Medicare systems. There's tremendous song-and-dance deceptions in the mass media about how this is all under control. It ain't. Especially if we cannot manage the economy, as now seems to be the case, however temporarily. To me..., it may be a sign that buyers want higher prices to continue paying off our headache from debt bourbon. Right, it's the old seignorage game. We do have inflation running several points higher than official CPI and PPI figures would indicate. This will eventually be reflected in a dollar devaluation. Hopefully, it's mostly foreign investors who are hurt by our profligacy. Hehe. I wouln't be surprise the see the Euro trading above its first day trade of 1.18:1 v. the greenback by the end of Dubya's term. We're heading for a weak buck. So.., I'm not much help. Au contraire, mon ami. You are a lot of help, and even some fun, from time to thyme. Re: The '60's - I see a lot of similarity between the Internet bubble bursting and the demise of the Nifty Fifty in the late 60's. I see an extended period of malaise in the equity market. Just too many professionals gaming the system for short term advantage. And no great story to suck in the naive public, at least none on my radar today. NO BEar MArket....! And no BEAMER, either. At least for me. I can't really see trading this market. Just too many crosscurrents to make it predictable enough for my conservative tastes. <g> If this is similar to the 69-70 market, then the bear shows up in earnest in 2004. After Dubya has a thorough chance to re-jigger the economic landscape to the liking of his cronies in da awl patch. JMVHO. Best, Ray