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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (67021)	2/14/2001 4:38:43 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Heinz- It seems that capitulation can only really happen if the Dow participates.....since most of the American public follows Dow vs. Naz (although obviously, Naz has gained a lot of interest last few years....i believe techs are still a minority for most investors- at least they THINK so..gg).. Anyway, what could be a catalyst for a REAL crack in the Dow? My thinking is that it would have to be when the DREAM of 2nd half recovery goes PHOOEY....the market right now is calibrating for that 2nd half recovery....looks to me like we are stuck in a trading range until we know either (1) Yes, things are getting better or (2) No, wait 'til next year (or beyond).. So, IMO, the question becomes: When will we get some clear, unmistakable signs that the 2nd recovery is a farce? I don't know the answer to that...but I'd think May-June is a possibility..... Keeping in mind that the market will likely anticipate that in advance, does that put us on a April crash timeframe? (In the meantime, I'd think we'll continue to oscillate between overbought, oversold, and seasonal factors like tax selling/end of Japanese fiscal year/no news period/runups into Fed meetings, and selloffs after)..of course, I am assuming no major problems from Cal. energy for rest of country, no wars, etc... Whadda think? What else to look for to foreshadow the BIG CRACK?