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To: mishedlo who wrote (10104)	2/13/2001 12:54:58 AM
From: pbull	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 13572

Yeah, AMAT has really been flying <gg> since what's-her-name at Goldman reco'd it several weeks ago. It's a fine company, no doubt, as long as you don't let fundamentals or stuff like that get in the way. JMHO. While I'm bothering to post, we all know what A.G. is going to say tommorrow. We all know the Fed is gonna keep cutting rates, and we all know the economic fundamentals likely will get worse before they get better. Heavens, there are still some who refuse to believe that this is what a recession looks like. End of rant. PB

To: mishedlo who wrote (10104)	2/13/2001 4:58:54 AM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13572

If I were looking for shorts/puts, I would not look in the chip sector. The $SOX chart is the reason: askresearch.com Technical buy signals (though early), from oversold levels. If I were shorting here, I'd look to enter at the declining long-term moving averages. The chart on AMAT, not surprisingly, looks very similar, and for that reason I would not look for a short here, either: askresearch.com But, I'm not looking for shorts at all. The reason is that I believe the $COMPX has begun a reversal. Also, market internals dictate that now is not the time to short: 1. The $COMPX Arms Index ($TRINQ) peaked at 2.89 on Friday, and is now headed sharply down, closing at 1.05 today; 2. On Friday, down volume exceeded up volume 5 to 1; today, up volume exceeded down volume, though not by much. This is a fairly dramatic turnaround; 3. The last four days of last week, declining issues outnumbered advancing issues handily; today, advancers outnumbered decliners; 4. The New High/New Low ratio bottomed at 1.36 on Friday, and is now headed back up, reaching 1.89 today; 5. The same pattern is true for the New High/New High + New Low ratio; 6. New Highs outnumbered New Lows today 2 to 1; 7. The NYSE $TICK rose rather dramatically the last 3 hours, finishing at 779; 8. The $COMPX chart shows a reversal candle today, with early technical buy signals: askresearch.com 9. $VXN chart shows a MACD "buy" signal, i.e. an uptrend in the $VXN: stockcharts.com[h,a]declynmy[dd][pd20,2][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3] 10. $COMPX 30 min intraday chart shows technical buy signals--and strengthening technicals---and bullish candles during the last half of the session, as the index rose towards the critical test of overhead at the 200 min ema: askresearch.com 11. Intraday $COMPX successfully tested important short-term support at 2447 today, as can be seen in the chart above. This point was only briefly breached near the open, and never seriously threatened for the remainder of the session. While we may yet see a test of 2364, if we do, this is a very probable reversal point. IMHO, the reversal has already begun, and this support will not be tested. The critical very long-term (12 years) trendline support at 2314 is also, IMHO, unlikely to be tested at this point. 12. The 21-day moving average of the CBOE Equity put/call has dropped still lower to 0.521, and this is a bullish signal at these put/call levels; The above makes it clear to me that the $COMPX is either already reversing and beginning a rally (most likely, IMHO), or about to. Either way, I would not want to be in a short position under these circumstances. I'll leave it to the pundits to "explain", but I see increasing clear signs of rapidly increasing buying pressure into the $COMPX. As always, JMVHO...... Walkingshadow