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Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Walkingshadow who wrote (10108)	2/13/2001 9:06:53 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13572

WS - I am primarily cash right now, and happy about it. That said, I simply do not believe that this is the bottom. I have given many reasons for this, and if that "sideline cash" is all deployed soon, yes we will indeed bounce hard. Once that cash is in, however, that will be it. Bad earnings will keep coming, there will be nothing left to fuel anything but gravity. The fact of the matter is, by all historical standards, the NAZ is still way over-valued in terms of PE and PEg. The bulls, keep equating good companies with good stock prices and the two are completely different. How long is the recession (slowdown whatever), going to last? That is the big question and no one really knows. I still see nothing to improve consumer confidence which is 2/3 of the economy. Just what the heck are they going to buy, when half are scared sh*tless over losing a job and tha average person already has $8,000 in credit card debt? So, other than the disproven "do not fight the Fed", just what is the impetus for a rise in consumer confidence. It sure ain't jobs. A $300 tax cut? When and so what. That will buy a few dinners out. When are PC sales going to rise? That controls an enormous amt of chip companies etc. Chips have paeked and have much further to fall (some anyway like PMCS still supporting a PE of 150 or something like that). What realistic chance will CSCO work off that inventory any time soon? About ZERO I think. 3 quarters from now if they are lucky. Eventually the market will look forward to that time, probably late this summer for a nice big rall this Autumn. SEBL software PE 250 or something like that. Excesses excesses excesses. All I see are reasons for a relief rally, that I sure wish we got. It will come, and I may miss it. But then what. Down again, until Inventory worked off and consumer confidence is restored. M