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Gold/Mining/Energy : Lundin Oil (LOILY, LOILB Sweden) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tomas who wrote (2036)	2/15/2001 12:09:45 PM
From: Tomas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2742

US May Have to Drop Sanctions WASHINGTON, February 15 (AFP) - The United States may have to abandon its trade sanctions against Iran, Iraq and Libya if it wants to avoid future international conflicts over oil, according to a congressionally-sponsored report. "If global oil demand estimated for 2020 is reasonably correct and is to be satisfied, Iran, Iraq, and Libya should by then be producing at their full potential if other supplies have not been developed," said the three-volume study prepared by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. The report, titled "The Geopolitics of Energy into the 21st Century," examines availability of oil in the next 20 years and attempts to forecast geopolitical implications of the world's growing demand for crude. It said worldwide energy demand was likely to grow more than 50 per cent between now and 2020. But while in the industrialised world, it will increase by 23 per cent, it will more than double in developing countries, with Asia accounting for the bulk of the increase, the study projected. "Indeed, if estimates of future demand are reasonably correct, the Persian Gulf must expand oil production by almost 80 per cent during 2000-2020, achievable perhaps if foreign investment is allowed to participate and if Iran and Iraq are free of sanctions," the authors of the study concluded. The report warns the anticipated emergence of China as a major oil importer in the next two decades could pose problems for the United States. "The rising dependence of China on Persian Gulf oil could well alter political relationships within and outside the region," the researchers said. "For example, China might seek to build military ties with energy exporters in the Persian Gulf in ways that would be of concern to the United States and its allies," they added. The report warns that 20 years form now European nations could develop a "worrisome dependency" on Russian gas exports. It said the United States should not "obstruct" efforts to build multiple pipelines leading from the Caspian Sea region.