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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim black who wrote (1890)	2/13/2001 6:04:58 PM
From: CharlieChina	Respond to of 74559

TO ALL: forget the noise .... focus on the broad horizon .... see the forest not the trees .... Greenspan is noise at this time ... there is a bigger picture that has been taken by the undercurrent the will send your thoughts to lower limits if you let them ....

To: jim black who wrote (1890)	2/14/2001 2:40:31 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hi Jim, Just got back to HK. Good hearing from you again. <<sees the day by as early as 2006 when no national US debt instruments like T-bills>> If the maestro predicts it, the very opposite will likely happen. In accordance with the maestro, what we are now experiencing was not even on the radar. <<mostly short term treasuries>> Much of my "cash" allocation is actually also in short term treasury strips, with maturity periods staggered (something maturing every 3-6 months, going out 3 to 4 years, thus capturing the short to intermediate yields. Each maturing strip gets rolled over to a new 4-5 year maturity strip) is as good as cash, earning a higher yield than banks, highly fungible, and not at risk of broker's demise. My own version of the jumbo CD. <<gold hit $800/oz and the Hunt brothers went tits up ... the NAZ at pe of 100, CSCO, INTC, etc, OR GE at pe of~ 40>> Gold at $800 is as extreme as CSCO is now, a box with no magic. At least gold has a residual value long after the mania, fungible the world over, whereas CSCO can be taken out by a combination of competitors and events, and used switches are only good for the gold and platinum on the circuit boards. The NAZ is higher than 100 PE iht.com QUOTE Despite Fall, Tech Stocks Aren't Cheap Floyd Norris New York Times Service Tuesday, February 13, 2001 NEW YORK As the red ink flows - in a somewhat hidden manner - the Nasdaq 100 is setting new standards for a price-earnings ratio by a major American stock index. The index is now trading at 811 times the combined earnings of the companies in the index ... ... The last time the Dow Jones industrial average showed a net annual loss for its companies was in 1933, at the bottom of the Great Depression. UNQUOTE <<Land is overpriced everywhere in this country anyone would want to live>> Yup, land has historically been the last refuge until it too gets blown up, either in the form of sharply reduced value or liquidity or more likely both. <<I saw your own allotment of assets ... are you still comfortable with that?>> Immediately before the moment of maximum confusion, wild panic, and horrific melee, there is no need for "long term strategy" as none of these strategies will survive the confrontation with the dark forces. However nimble and clever we may believe we are, we are all simply too big an economic target to escape clean from the carnage the maestro has prepared for us. We can try to benefit from the chaos, but realistically, we should only plan to survive the dark quarters in slightly better shape than our neighbors. To do well, by my experience from all that has happened in HK for the last 15 years, some key words come to mind ... Continuity Conservation Contingency Keep diversified Keep liquid (no debt) Keep moving (take profit and run) Do not look back (do not average down) Do not pray when the ship starts to sink, take the losses and jump instead Do not act out of conviction Wealth is at times an absolute accumulation and at other times a relative preservation game. So, yes, I am happy with my present allocation and pirate like raids (buy) on newly wounded shares, only to leave (sell) the wounded after grabbing their water can. Sounds terrible but closer to the truth. A time of hope, renewal and construction will come, but not right before the tsunami. Chugs, Jay