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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wmwmw who wrote (3250)	2/13/2001 3:59:11 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

sorry that it's not a simple yes or no answer, but bond market traders and investors are motivated by different criteria at different times. The bond desks in the early 1980's use to trade off of the weekly M1, M2 etc numbers. the entire curve will move up in price at times of financial crisis where the "flight to safety" is foremost on investors and traders minds. ------------- Though Greenspan stated that the economy is not in recession he repeated that a break in confidence is key to the start of a recession. The expectations component of consumer confidence has fallen 30% in three months and seems consistent with a break in confidence though Greenspan noted earlier that the current level of the consumer confidence index is not historically consistent with recession. Nonetheless, there is enough economic risk to necessitate preventatives (further easing) but after the front-loading in January we suspect the pace will be calmed and inter-meeting moves less likely. 12:10 ET 30-year: +1/32..5.412%....GNMAs: -4/32....$-¥: 117.08 Treasuries coming under pressure in early afternoon trading with the long end joining the rest of the curve in negative territory. Weakness may be on the back of Q&A comments from Fed Chairman Greenspan who said that the longer-term outlook is still "undiminished", while a recession is a low probability event. Fresh longs caught the wrong way, though downside should be limited if real money was indeed putting on flatteners earlier in the session.---------- ----