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To: martin001 who wrote (67326)	2/13/2001 4:05:08 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

a BK does not need an outside catalyst. while it is true that in hindsight several possible 'catalysts' have been identified in the wake of BKs , i doubt that they were in fact catalysts. in reality, there is no way one can identify the 'reason' for a panic...the only common thread is that speculative excesses preceded all panics. but what made the panics happen when they DID happen, no-one knows for sure. it's of course possible that we get a slow grind...but i'm willing to bet it will be punctuated by periods of panic or near panic. and then there's the usual disclaimer...i.e., we may be completely wrong.

To: martin001 who wrote (67326)	2/13/2001 4:07:27 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

<<A slow grind down seems more likely IMHO>> I agree. The "clown tossed into a pot, then heat gradually raised scenario" Instead of the "clown tossed into boiling derivatives" is the one that is most likely here. A prolonged, 24 month grinder of a bear, ending only with MF redemptions in SOIZE. Hard to make money buying poots in that environment, but golden if you like shorts. The first real milestone will be 3rd quarter earnings warnings (which IMO will be a huge disappointment, given the "second half" story that's been spun by everyone from Joey Butterpaglia to BubbleBoy himself). That, along with seasonal October paranoia should be a fairly toxic brew for the market. By that point the Fed will be constrained by the dollar and by renewed inflation, accelerated by rising natural gas and electricity costs. BWDIK?