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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LemurHouse who wrote (42137)	2/13/2001 10:08:56 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Hi Andrew, I really am borderline a perma-bull. I've just been in semi's since 85. Semi's are cyclical - period. This fact is the primary reason they never get the multiple their margins/growth deserve.JMHO I have learned the hard way many cycles ago!(time and time again I must admit) ERG. Amat cutting their eps by 50 % and talking about pushouts is the kiss of death. THAT IS THE NEGATIVE. I defy any experienced guru to point out a past period that this did not apply. It is the Semi Golden Rule!! I know I know and I even suckered for this one too : This time it's different!gggg Hogwash this time I'm buying at the bottom - I hope !! GULP HERE'S THE POSITIVE.This last shake to ridiculous evaluations will occur as "many savvy investors quietly scoop up many shares with GTC lowballs - as the panicing MOMO's bail out. BAILOUT THEY WILL !! Wait till the final nasty shakeout in PRICE ONLY happens with great volatility (best confirmed by an intraday VIX spike into the 50-60's).It will be scary and a panic.It will also feature a positive divergence between price and Time Segmented Volume,Balance of power,Momentum,Macd,Stochastics,Dmi - you name it - it will be obvious : price will be down - volatility up and buyers down there with the GTC lowballs pickin up the fire sale merchandise. The key straw that will break the camels back will be the executives admission " we don't know how long it will take for things to get better and turn around (that cinches the hopelessness of no end to the decline(that defines the end) - they'll be telling the truth. Hey they show up to work to handle the orders - they don't have a magic button that makes everything OK. When things get ugly ,they still show up and do their thing.Watch expenses,conserve cash,keep up on training, R&D and be sure when things get good again you go like hell - Gain Market Share. Hold onto your hats - If you liked Amat at 50 you are fixin to love it in the future. Be brave and nimble - get rich.JMHO Bob The best part is it will be over SOON and this mini downturn will correct itself. After that and only after that we will ALL ask ourselves: " Why didn't we buy more of that great value - It was so obvious ! Make no mistake - the vast majority of investors will be frozen by the fear of the moment - just like a deer in a headlamp beam of a car. It will be momentous,It will be powerful.It will be a wealth defining moment of several years for those who have the selectivity to hold and the bold bravery to fire in the middle of panic and fear. Ahh but militia minute men have a tradition of waiting til they see the whites of their eyes. It is in fact : THE AMERICAN WAY ! Ya just gotta luv it!! HEHEHEH Bob P.S. tomorrow we slide towards the abyss. JMHO (re: the NAZ)