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To: A.L. Reagan who wrote (10146)	2/13/2001 11:51:34 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Respond to of 13572

A.L., Re: Sheesh, he's making monetary policy based on sell-side analyst reports? The same info sources that led to trillions of dollars of market cap vaporization? Get a grip. It was only about three trillion semolians. Chump change for a big thinker like A.G. Heck that's not hardly any of our concern anahoo, now is it? We're just supposed to come around for the shearings. According to one prominent survey, the three- to five-year average earnings projections of more than a thousand analysts, According to one prominent principal at First Call, the numbers are being revised down now, and he pointed out on Bloomberg TV that the First Call numbers always and forever demonstrate a bias toward the rosy scenario for the middle run, (i.e. 3-20 quarters out), up until the real numbers become totally unavoidable and smack the analyst/cheerleaders up side the head. Happens every quarter of every year. What was that Fed Chairman smoking before he met with the windbags up on Capitalism Hill? Delusional doobie, if you ask me. Or maybe the wily old fox just wants to lie through his teeth in order to make everyone feel a little better about what appears to be a really nasty little recession coming soon to an economy near you. I dunno. Greenspan was pretty plain spoken earlier this year when he got scared. Now he's back to the song-and-dance routine. I guess I just need to relax, and not think about the fact that the auto industry is cutting back capacity like crazy, that Charles Schwab has staff on involutary layoffs or that the California economy is being wrecked by the rapacious gaming of the IPPs and O&G crowd. Maybe this is the best of all possible worlds.... Yeah, right, and I'm the King of Siam. A friend of mine sounded the bell on the Greenspan era about a month ago when two books came out on the Chairman within a two week period. The Bernstein piece is supposed to be pure, unadulterated puff. Total softball. My pal said the publication of the books marks the inevitable decline in the powers and efficacy of AG, as he begins to believe his own blarney, and confuses his luck with sound management practices. Thanks for pointing out the portion of the testimony dealing with the "equity analysts". Heaven help us. What kind of doddering fool would have anything but ridicule for that ilk? Best, Ray