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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (42149)	2/14/2001 8:46:54 AM
From: LemurHouse	Respond to of 70976

I'm thinking that 3 to 6 months from now we'll get our opportunity. Looks like things will be worse -- and consequently the stock will be a lot cheaper -- than previously believed. I.E. its not different this time. But a bit faster maybe. If we get prices accross the sector comparable to what we got in the fall of '98, then it will truly be a gift. I didn't expect to get that kind of opportunity again so soon; but I've got my powder dry and I'll be ready. FWIW

To: michael97123 who wrote (42149)	2/14/2001 11:23:27 AM
From: John Trader	Respond to of 70976

Mike, That sounds good, but it may be hard to get everyone to tune it at the same time. I am on the west coast, so don't always check when the market opens (6:30am here). I have been in AMAT since 96, but I did not have much in it then, and did not follow it that closely until recently. I am becoming more of a trader now in the tech market due to the incredible fluctuations. I guess I have been bounced around too much like a ping pong ball with the buy and hold approach. Also, I find this whole thing fascinating. Particularly the incredible buys that present themselves sometimes. The first one that comes to mind is AMAT going up about 10 times from the bottom in 98. It probably went much too far to the upside, but still, moves like that are incredible. I think Bob put it well when he said the only reason the valuations are lower in this business is because of its cyclical nature. People get rattled with the selloffs, and that causes prices to stay lower than for other techs, which is really a good thing, and makes this a good space to invest in. The thing I need to improve on is learning when to sell, so if we ever come out of this one, that plan will be on my mind a lot. Maybe we can have some good discussions then on when to get out. I don't think I would go to cash, right now I am thinking of going to an S&P index fund instead, per an approach mentioned in a book I have on tech investing. John