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Technology Stocks : METRICOM - Wireless Data Communications -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rrufff who wrote (3138)	2/14/2001 9:22:13 AM
From: Paul Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3376

The typical Metricom defense, companies like Sprint (which are successful) don't know what they are doing but Metricom (which has almost no customers and is running out of money) does know what it is doing. Up is down, right is wrong, etc. Every company has some unhappy customers, especially if you are a company adding more than one million new customers every three months - something Metricom knows nothing about! I just picked Sprint as an example. The same type of competition (a real issue) is also coming from Verizon, AT&T, and Voicestream. Again, my opinion is that Metricom is trying to convince people that there will be no competition and that is not 100% truthful. I'll let other people try to figure out why, with "no competition," there are also almost no customers. Good luck.

To: rrufff who wrote (3138)	2/14/2001 9:26:55 AM
From: rrufff	Respond to of 3376

OK let's talk a little about financing! I've done some very very informal checking with contacts in venture and banking communities. This is a doable deal, albeit large. As many probably know, there is still a hot market for foreign money being funneled into this country. There is also a hot market for those who actually feel safer with venture deals rather than taking chunks of public float given today's market, having been burnt on dot.bomb scams. Venture people know they can be selective now, going for the best deals and extracting tough terms. When I discuss a possible 1/2 billion dollar deal with investors like Paul Allen and WorldCom, they say there is real interest. Wireless data that actually works piques even more eyebrows. I've also spoken to some banking contacts. The first thing they ask is whether VV would guarantee and/or give up a piece of its majority holding. Even with my cursory attempts at researching this issue, you can see how complicated the politics and legal issues become. No wonder this has taken so long. Most bashers talk about dilution and try to scare longs by posting that the only deal is 125 million shares at 4 bucks. That deal is NOT going to happen in my opinion. If a VC comes along, they are going to want a big chunk but that will come from everyone, not just the public piece of 13%. Net result to public shareholders will not be significantly less than what they have now if you do the math. Bottom line, if the service works and eventually makes a profit, everyone gets rich. Otherwise, as I've said before, you lose 4 1/2 bucks. The legal issues are on the periphery. One thing you can see in the TD conference call and even the unclear "clarification" is that they are very concerned about crossing i's and dotting t's in the SEC and disclosure area. In my opinion, no way they are going to come close to areas that tempt class action lawyers or those who would bring an action based on breach of fiduciary duties to minority shareholders. Don't think my vulture buddies in the class action area would be interested? Huh! For the PR alone, they'd love to make PA a defendant. Ain't gonna happen. PA has not screwed shareholders in the past. His deals are usually more than fair. (I cited the recent HSAC deal which actually had an ABOVE-MARKET kicker conversion.) Will it happen? This network is going to be used by someone. If you value it anywhere near what is being spent to buy spectrum, then you have a value that is way higher than current share price. This post has concentrated on 3d party possibilities in both the VC and banking arenas. If Vulcan were willing to guarantee financing, banks would be salivating. There would be a consortium put together in record time. Would Vulcan do it to insure the success of its past investment? That's the half billion dollar question. Without that guarantee, it's doable but interest would be a lot higher and an equity kicker needs to be in there. Management would have another set of eyes, looking over their shoulder, and restrictions would be significant. If everything fails, I do believe that Vulcan will take the hit. They will guarantee a deal or they will strong-arm a decent VC deal or they will actually do the deal themselves. As I posted before, I don't think they'll significantly dilute because they have the control of the pie now. Anything further would amount to taking it private, which I do not think fits into the broad picture. Allen and company are not doing this for the here and now. They know the market will turn and they will be looking to go to Wall Street and others in the future. Credibility is most important and Paul Allen and his advisers don't want the reputation they would get if any of the FUD scenarios were to play out. Short run - shorts are still in control. I expect several bashers will justifiably come over and say that if I had listened to them, I would have made money. Can't argue with that. (I can point out manipulative activities and activities that may possibly be violative of SEC statutes and regulations thereunder. I can also point out that shorts will have to cover a huge percentage of the float, which could possibly be disastrous to their profits. But I can't argue that shorts have been successful.) Price could still go down from here. Company management definitely needs to get their act together. Management has invested heavily in the equity at much higher prices and, as Bill says, "feels our pain." I suspect it gets better soon. DISCLOSURE - been wrong before and will be wrong again. Only the SI gurus are right 110% of the time on 110% of their picks. Don't invest based on what I may be dreaming about. Poster may hedge and change his position, intellectually or financially without notice. I can afford to take a complete loss but I will cry for at least an hour if that happens.