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Technology Stocks : Juniper Networks - JNPR -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mehitabel who wrote (2203)	2/14/2001 3:04:54 PM
From: Herschel Rubin	Respond to of 3350

Bruce and Mehitabel - Might this be the quote about Paul Johnson you're referring to: Message 15347131 From: Herschel Rubin Tuesday, Feb 13, 2001 5:33 PM Respond to of 2203 From the Robertson Stephens Conference (before Scott Kriens Speaks tomorrow): www2.marketwatch.com. "Juniper Networks (JNPR: news, msgs) fell $1 percent to $78.88, off from an earlier 8 percent gain. Robertson Stephens analyst Paul Johnson, who presented at the investment banks' conference Monday, again made a case that new players on the field, compared with the old guard like Cisco Systems, represent the best investment opportunities in network equipment. Juniper is one of the companies he follows. See dispatches from Robertson Stephens conference. Merrill Lynch analyst Michael Ching initiated coverage on Juniper with an "accumulate" rating and a 12- to 18-month price target of $110, 38 percent above Monday's close. "Juniper has emerged as one of the leading companies in the high-end router space," Ching wrote. Behind, Cisco, Juniper controls 30 percent of the fast-growing high-end market, he added. " JDSU Sees Capital Exp spending RISING: www2.marketwatch.com. JDSU sees cap ex resumption By Nicole Maestri, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 3:52 PM ET Feb 13, 2001 SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- JDS Uniphase CFO Anthony Miller said that his company said it expects to see a resumption in capital spending this year. In terms of telecom and IT spending, "while we are seeing a temporary rest in the rates of capital spending," the company (JDSU: news, msgs) is confident in the next quarter to quarter and a half it will see a resumption in capital spending. He also said to look for guidance in regards to business conditions and its merger with SDL Inc. during a conference call expected Tuesday afternoon. ____________________________________________________ JDSU warns, but moves higher after hours: biz.yahoo.com SCMR Beats Consensus Estimates of 0.05 I've been listening to the SCMR CC and they have kept their guidance the same going forward for both revenues and eps. They have the same story about the next one or two quarters: Uncertainty, but they remain confident about their positioning, etc.

To: Mehitabel who wrote (2203)	2/14/2001 7:38:06 PM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3350

Mehitabel, yes - that's the one. With all the effort that investors do in uncovering emerging technology niches to identify the criteria of whether or not a game is taking place that has the potential to create an emerging 'gorilla', the past couple of years have seen a plethora of shorter term mania thrown at the spaces. The same was true five to ten years ago, but the mania was not quite as 'concentrated' in terms of the valuations, interest, time and volatility. My comments and reflections on Johnson's words were that I feel I owe myself an adjustment in strategy to balance out my willingness to participate as an investor in emerging 'games' that draw so much interest and volatility. Although I have always been adept at locating the games early in the past years, most pre-IPO, I have never been adept at handling the early enthusiasm and possible strategies to handle that enthusiasm for benefit. Some of those strategies are 'new' to me when compared to my strategy of longer term time horizons than a year or two using an early basket approach or being able to identify the leading candidate or two early in a cycle and simply holding the category killer leader(s). Whether we are talking about shares of the mature guard which include Cisco, Microsoft, Oracle and Intel or shares of younger companies like Qualcomm, JDS Uniphase, Checkpoint, Juniper, Redback, Brocade, BEA Systems, Ciena, i2, etc... - all have seen tremendous enthusiasm, interest and volatility where strategies for the shorter term could have helped one benefit on both sides of a trade. Time will tell if the future, as in the past, we will see the market make the traditional mistake of failing to forecast just how much the benefits of network effects will contribute to the long term earnings and growth of companies like Juniper, Qualcomm, Checkpoint, BEA Systems, Ciena, etc... . It could be that everything is simply going according to plan, but the shorter term concentration we've seen of recent - especially with the economic ship waters - simply magnifies it all the more and spins one's head. I fully expected a Juniper shorter term correction once Cisco finally announced an OC192 product was 'available'. Yet, I didn't anticipate the severity of such a correction to benefit in the best possible manner. I also expect a move in the other direction as the next generation product from Juniper is announced and is shipping. Although I realize there is much more to this software intensive game in the targeted niches than a shorter term game of leap frog, reality is that the market plays that game. Most recently we saw Juniper squeezed and marked up from the $100 range +/- up to the $160 range +/- and then back down to the $80 range +/-. Or if you look back at the 1999 poster child for gorilla gaming, Qualcomm ran up to $200 in early 2000 and then down to the low $50's before running back up to $106 +/- range and back down to the $60's and on and on. Now it's nice to identify the CDMA game and next generation wireless in 1998 or early 1999 like most did (if not earlier) or Juniper's target niche in 1998 and early 1999 before they went public and one could invest. However, the activity created and witnessed since those dates has been quite 'concentrated' even though the technology adoption life cycles have only progressed a smidgen in terms of 'time'. BB