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Technology Stocks : INTEL TRADER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (8977)2/15/2001 6:45:05 AM
From: Jurgen Trautmann  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 11051
 
Collected data for qqq and friends...

qqq que bk (feb 63)

dec 20o 57.3125 4
jan 03l 52.0625 1.1825
jan 09c 57.25 3.25
jan 24h 69.125 7.625
feb 14c 57.45 0.05

Yesterdays mars-call with the biggest delta (0.172) was
que ci (strike 61 bid 2.25 ask 2.45) thus had a spread
of about 10%.

What can we read out these numbers?

I hope it's ok for you when I just write what I think.

Best point for writing calls short would have been jan 24h.
Your 100k were 1446 qqq at this moment, and you could have
sold covered by this 14 contracts for a premium of
14 * 7.625 * .8 (assumed a spread of 20% at this moment).
You would have got 8,540 US$ and this would be your gain
because this call will expire out of the money.

What's the chance of this game? Related to your total
engagement of 100k this brought 15%. Assumed you can repeat
that each month you would win 180% and that's not bad,
n'est-ce pas?

I do not want to disturb the picture by perfect "exact"
calculations with interest, tax and so on... <g>

Where's the risk? You went short when your call was nearly
10% in the money. IMO this was VERY high risk, of course
limited by your covering 100k ^~^.

I'll construct a fundamental example: a single big player
needed to come out with a strongly improved outlook after
you sold your calls... What would you estimate? 20% each
week? 50% till expiration, makes 30 Dollars for QQQ and a
loss of 37 k Dollar.

Why is that thinkable? First, (tech-)markets are down,
second, you fought the FED.

What do you think about that?

Jury

PS: congrats, you sold VERY good, not to say perfect.
Guess, you're the real momentum-player ;)



To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (8977)2/15/2001 2:29:18 PM
From: Jurgen Trautmann  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11051
 
Dell J2C030...

Cash 2/14/01 BOT 20 WDQAF C 2 1/2
Cash 2/15/01 SLD 40 WDQAF CLOSE 4

PS:
re. your trade quebk at jan 19 - this trade is not recorded, neither with quote.com nor with Interquote. Do you know at which exchange your trade was executed?
Another example for manipulation - a exceptional good trade is not reported through OPRA... When I look at my streaming table I can observe manipulation of marketmakers in every corner - it's all legal... BTW, my yesterdays bot of wdqaf is not reported too with quote.com...
Anyway: My Interquote-charts just show open, close, high and low - no intraday bid/ask, and no exchanges - but it's my only source for historical options-data.