To: isopatch who wrote (87208 ) 2/14/2001 5:19:12 PM From: excardog Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453 NY Natural Gas Review: Tumbles; Breaks Key Support After Agas Feb. 14-MAR-- By Gloria Gonzalez, BridgeNews New York--Feb. 14--NYMEX Mar Henry Hub natural gas futures settled down 50.1 cents at $5.518 per MMBtu, plunging more than 8% after the Mar contract broke key support at $5.615 following the release of the latest storage data from the American Gas Association. * * * Observers said the report was actually somewhat supportive because it indicated the return of some industrial demand and showed Western storage levels at precariously low levels. However, they noted that the market's inability to break resistance at the $6.100 level provided the impetus for a retest of last week's support levels. AGA reported U.S. gas storage at 1,041 bcf for the week ended Feb. 9, down 95 from the previous week, and down 363 from the same period of 2000. Storage levels are now 25.9% below year-ago levels. The 95-bcf draw was below both the year-ago 2000 draw of 158 bcf and the five-year average draw of 120 bcf. It was also slightly above pre-release expectations in the range of 83 to 93 bcf. "This number caused some people who wanted to sell their longs to sell," said Prudential analyst Aaron Kildow. Observers said this report and the previous report indicate that industrial demand has been increasing slightly during the market's recent sell-off, but they noted that prices need to fall a little further before more industrials get back into the market. "I think we're going to have to work it to the low $5 range consistently to see the industrial demand come back," the analyst said. Withdrawals in the West remain abnormally strong as local utilities draw on storage to meet supply needs during the current energy crisis in California. The region has dealt with colder-than-normal temperatures in recent weeks. "They're making new lows out there and it's only February," Kildow said. The western consuming region storage levels decreased by 20 bcf to 182 bcf of gas, or 36% of capacity. Western region storage levels are now 113 bcf lower than a year ago. The five-year average withdrawal in the West is 7.4 bcf. OUTLOOK The Mar contract's break below $5.615 support could fuel a further move lower, although cooler temperatures in the key consuming regions this weekend may stall any downside probe. "I think we're heading to $5.250," one trader said. Colder weather is expected Thursday into this weekend in the Midwest, increasing heating demands to above average. The coldest conditions are likely to occur Saturday and Sunday before more seasonal weather returns next week. Heating fuel consumption will remain below average through Friday as temperatures stay above average in the New England/Northeast region. Cooler weather is likely Sunday and Monday, increasing heating demands, but no extreme cold is expected. End