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To: Jeff Jordan who wrote (67748)	2/14/2001 5:52:19 PM
From: UnBelievable	Respond to of 436258

When You’re Trying To Prop Up The Dow You Have Limited Choices The Dow closed at 10795 today, a higher low than last Friday or Monday. Many people feel that INDU is coiling to make a strong break up or down. Closing it at a higher low helps keep the potential for an upside break, in the minds of the clownishly deranged, still a viable possibility. The 50-day and 200 day SMA are at about 10700 and the 100-day SMA is at about 10650. When it ventures further down it will be drawn to test and potentially fall below these lines. The area where these lines reside is the lower end of the trading range that INDU has been in and probably would be considered a break down. As you know there are only 30 stocks in the Dow. All in all most of them had a pretty weak day. There were only 5 green. And of these only 3 were up over .5% with JPM up only .1% and MSFT up only .3% This meant that the heavy lifting fell on only three stocks. INTC, not withstanding the fact that there have been numerous recent observations concerning the limited sales and profits growth it is likely to experience was the champion, rising 5.2%: This notwithstanding the fact that it has not been able to get up over the bottom of the gap down from 11/30/00 at 38 1/2. After failing its third test of this level on 2/2/02 it has fallen in the six days prior to today to 32.50. Yesterday it broke down through the 50 day SMA at 33.81. Frequently after a breakdown from support you see a rally back to the support, now resistance. It closed a little over that level so it is possible it will continue on but I would expect some sort of doji tomorrow and more down Monday. The second heavyweight was HWP, which gained 3.6%. It looks like it got support from the 50 day SMA upon which it landed yesterday and was stopped by the bottom of the gap between 2/8 and 2/9. This leaves us with the third of the 3 Dow components that increased by more than 1%, the subject of your query, IBM. This is a stock in which I have a particular interest since I have a number of Feb. 115 puts (which expire tomorrow <gg>). On January 18, 2001, it concluded that actually going through the gap that it originally created 10/18/00 was much too difficult so it simply gapped up to the same level from which it had previously gapped down (bottom about 97.50, top 103.50). Initially it set about building a rising wedge from which it broke down nicely on 1/31/01. Unfortunately about half way down it decided it wanted to go up and in fact did an ugly thing when it put in a slightly higher high than the top of the wedge. Having done this it continued to mess with everyone's mind by starting down again. It now appears that it is at the right shoulder of a head and shoulders which should measure to the top of the gap at 103.5 when it breaks down. Unfortunately I it is not clear when it will break down nor do I expect it to go the distance in a day; although it does have a max. Pain of 100 (Link Below). Since my contracts are at 115 I hope that the fuck!ng thing at least goes down tomorrow. Getting to 110 or so seems possible since that is the level from which it began this most recent trek Monday. Although if it goes down it might not stop until the 200 day SMA at 108 (That's what the Easter Bunny told me.) Today it was stopped at 115 by horizontal resistance that comes into play quite a few times. I'm sure that if it were not for the fact that I have a financial interest in it going down that this resistance line would hold. <gg> iqauto.com