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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chojiro who wrote (10346)	2/14/2001 4:43:31 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

We could just follow each other around and do the opposite of the other. I guess you lost on your Ciena short. However, I did not make anything on it either. <g> I decided against buying it due to its high PE compared to the rest of optical stocks. If it does well and they should (IMHO), i plan to buy NT or the smaller companies like SCMR etc... There is always a buyout possibility witht the smaller companies. I would note that JDSU and GLW hit year lows and that is what I want to buy. GLW has a 2001 year end PE of 28 or so and that is not bad for this industry and they are also diversified into pots and pans.....oops...I mean biotech and flat screen displays. I would note that the higher PE stocks like JNPR and CIEN probably have the highest short interest as a percentage of float and probably the most dangerous shorts if a short covering rally occurs. I am just sticking to the GLW and JDSU types that have dropped significantly but still have a dominant market position....GLW in optical cable and JDSU in components especially by getting SDLI (which is the cream of the crop in optical components). My reason for these is that if CIENA does well, the others in the sector will benefit from a positive report anyways and they have a lower PE. good luck.

To: chojiro who wrote (10346)	2/14/2001 4:53:41 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

chojiro, I am trying to figure out whether we have seen a bottom in the higher PE stocks. If there is a bottom in these stocks, that may mean a reluctance to sell and if you monitor the short positions in these stocks..... I don't know what your experience in watching short covering rallies but they are basically the collapses in the stocks IN REVERSE but happen a little faster. I have seen some stocks make huge gains in a week---like 100% when short interest gets high. I don't know if we are there in a lot of stocks but if the selling dries up....lookout! Today's move could be the start of a move into tech stocks by some big funds and I would watch it carefully as it can turn into a stampede accompanied by the short covering rallies. good luck