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To: mishedlo who wrote (10179)2/14/2001 5:25:13 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 13572
 
Here are my thoughts on SCMR. They rallied but were earnings really any good?

SCMR blows them away.
Yeah right

Actually it is not the earnings per say that I do not trust but the forward guidance. Let's take a look:
CSCO AMAT SSTI NOK DELL AMCC JDSU GLW all report slowing growth and/or warned or both. GLW JDSU are in the same sector (I believe). At any rate, how is it
possible that one company can sit without lowering their forward guidance?

OOPS - I just looked, and they did warn on forward guidance. Here it is.

Sycamore sees growth rate slowing for rest of 2001.
Sycamore Chief Executive Daniel Smith said he sees ``a great deal of uncertainty' over the next two quarters as telecommunications carriers cut capital expenditures for building high-speed networks. Shares of networking giants such as Cisco Systems Inc and Nortel Networks Corp also have been hammered due to the telecom spending slowdown.

Now, is this a 2 quarter problem or does it extend beyond that? I simply do not know.

Let's look at a few more things.
1) margins: Jewels said the uncertain economic climate has made forecasting the firm's gross margins increasingly more difficult. Gross margins are expected to decline to 45 percent for the rest of the year, a drop of about 2 percentage points from the second quarter, Jewels said.
Comment. This is not good news, and is a sign of competition or other problems in a possibly slowing sector.

2) Growth: Sycamore also left its 2002 revenue growth target of 65 percent to 72 percent unchanged. The company guided analysts to look for 2002 earnings at the low end of their consensus range of 32 cents to 39 cents per share.
Comment: can they maintain that growth? I do not know.

3) Customers: Williams Communications Group Inc accounted for half of the company's revenue in the second quarter. But Sycamore said it has diversified by adding other customers.
Comment: one customer has 50% of the revenue. What the heck happens if Williams slows more? Again not a good sign. Why do they only have one good customer? What product are the other companies using? Is their product that good if they have only 1 major customer?

4) Vendor Financing: ``Vendor financing is a competitive reality,' Spalding said. ``If you don't offer it, it is hard to compete with larger companies with larger resources.'
Comment: Hmmm, do they have acct receivables from some dotcoms they will never see?

5) Market cap: Over $6B
Comment: Earnings $18M. Is this any good?
Note: Sycamore recorded quarterly income of only $1.6 million from its operations, but its earnings were bolstered by $26.3 million in net interest income. $1.6M from operations, is this any good?

M