To: robert b furman who wrote (42219 ) 2/15/2001 1:15:27 PM From: John Trader Read Replies (2) | Respond to Hi Bob, Sorry I did not get back sooner. I guess it is greed that we are smelling. I came close to selling some AMAT before earnings, but I am glad I did not. My guess is that it is a combination of things. I think the reason AMAT has been recommended so much lately is partly because so many of the pros gave horrible advice last year, and are trying to ground themselves more in fundamentals this year. I think Greenspan's comment on the downturn likely to be short was a factor. Also news from INTC CFO today saying that INTC is starting to see the chip inventory clear our is a factor I think. Of course Dan Niles is quick to come out and try to talk the semi's down again (don't know what to think about Niles at this point, he is going against the crowd which I like, but is he going to be there to ring the bell when the semi's finally bottom? Maybe the bottom has been seen, and that is what this rally is about today.) One other thing, I think the Cisco selloff brought prices down, which set us up for a rebound. And, there is a big difference between Cisco talking about slowdowns and inventory than AMAT doing the same. This business it is known to be cyclical, vs Cisco was on a one way up slope for such a long time. Lastly, in this bear market environment, low PE stocks like AMAT sure look good relative to some others. That is my attempt anyway at explaining it. Just my two cents worth.
