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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doo who wrote (69209)	2/14/2001 8:44:51 PM
From: TRINDY	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

To all--Despite declines exceeding advances by 1965 to 1778 today on the NAZ, up volume was substantial. The resulting TRIN is .37. Might be the case that we are looking at a turning point leading to a short-term rally. Traders can take advantage. But, for my tastes, I'm going to wait. There may be playable rallies, but they are difficult to play. You have to be really on your game, and who has the time to watch things that closely. My strategy is to keep my powder dry for that one time when I just barely begin to see light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel in the eyes of people like Fleckenstein. That will be the time to go whole hog both fundamentally and technically. While I'm here I would like to once again point out the obvious to those who fail to see what is going on with the Fed. They are accomplices in the bubble and they know it. They are scared to death that this bubble will burst and come raining down on financial markets. Thus, when the market is low, they paper over it (with a lot of paper money), cheer everyone up, and once again contribute to the stock of moral hazard out there. When the market is high (the naz, in particular), Greenie takes his next speaking opportunity to say that "well things aren't as bad as we thought," and the bubble deflates marginally. This cat/mouse game has been going on for some time, since 1998 Asian crisis and LTCM debacle at least, and there is no reason to suspect that it will end anytime soon. Perhaps this action creates a floor under the naz. Perhaps the economy gets really bad and the Fed will have used much of its powder and credibility pushing on a string. Who knows. The upshot is, while we may be in for a short-term up move, don't expect it to move too far. There fundamental problems in tech land, coupled with the incredibly high sentiment levels, will fundamentally keep a lid on tech values. Cheers!

To: Doo who wrote (69209)	2/14/2001 9:03:24 PM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 99985

Jeffry White: For the most part I draw my charts using the extremes of pivots and rarely ignore penetrations. However, drawing trend lines well consistently requires experience. You cannot get that from a book. I think to many folks have come out of the wood work as of late, declaring themselves TA experts. Many have only recently cut their teeth in the market over the last couple of years and are still heavily influenced by what they have read in books and do not have enough experience with using the tools, yet! Being self-taught I have no allegiance to any book, but I do think that some offer a good foundation for those interested in technical analysis. However, it is not all mechanical and everyone needs time in grade to learn the nuances of the skill side. If someone starts out drawing loose trend lines to begin with, they'll have a tendency to draw them to accommodate their expectations. I'll not comment on the trend lines drawn on the SA thread except to say, drawing trend lines correctly is as important as paying attention to the price volume relationship. I have been saying for years on this thread, trend lines and horizontal support resistance areas offer price action intersection points where one can work at discerning if an action is to be taken or not, through the use of multiple time frame technical indicators as the price action nears or intersects those points. To take advantage of this method, you have to get the trend lines and horizontal price action points right. Regards, LG

To: Doo who wrote (69209)	2/14/2001 10:46:50 PM
From: Dave Kiernan	Respond to of 99985

"Valentine's Day wasn't exactly loaded with roses and candy for the markets. The NDX did finally manage to turn in an almost 100 point positive close after meandering around most of the day. The DJIA and SPX didn't do as well, although their downward closes were small. Semiconductors help to bolster the NDX as the SOX was the top performing index today with many semiconductor stocks (including some recently beaten down) bouncing today. Nothing too significant came out of today's technicals, except perhaps that the NDX futures closed at the top of its descending 60 minute channels this afternoon. If it can push higher tomorrow rather rollover like it's been doing, it might help trigger some program buying giving us a little positive action going into Friday. However, if it rolls over at resistance again, look for it to potentially drift back down toward the support zone. Let's take a quick look at the charts now:" 3mtinc.com