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To: chowder who wrote (87241)	2/14/2001 11:51:24 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

"Identify the trend and get in ahead of it" Dabum, that's a fav of mine. RTN.B, LOILY, STXD, MWP and others are all examples of ways I've gotten positioned early but not TOO early(g). We continue to be in a wipsaw market that is more conducive to your trading style than mine. But am always willing to listen and try to find ways to work in ideas that fit into my own routine and methods. And since you agree with me on a chunch coming in the energy stocks, shorting some energy stocks would be an easier transition for me than moving to another sector like tech. Switch hitting allows me to stick with stocks whose trading patterns I'm already well acquainted with. Makes sense to me anyway(g). One caution I'd offer about what you've been doing. It might seem that "the risks of being out of the market are greater than being in" as long as we're in this churning mostly sideways market. But when the next major downleg starts this will change. And when that happens, how do you exit being fully invested in numerous volatile tech positions on short notice without taking some significant losses? Not trying to take a pot shot at you, but you do acknowledge occasionally making mistakes and taking ST losses in your trading the past 3 or 4 months, right? Iso

To: chowder who wrote (87241)	2/15/2001 1:45:21 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

"I think one of the wisest, yet simplest pieces of advice, (I like simple), came from Kollmnh. Identify the trend and get in ahead of it. " What "trend" did kollmnh ever get in front of ? He was a year late entering the Oilpatch cycle here - he entered RRC as an obsession play at $5-$6 and then watched the paint dry for 15 months as RRC collapsed to $1 15/16ths - continually averaging down - while the rest of the Oilpatch doubled, tripled & quadrupled all around him ? Has he dumped "ALL" of his RRC from $7 to $6 and completely exited here ? - if so - maybe he's learned; if not - he's still full of $hit and the RRC Yahoo Thread is a bunch of back-slapping, fish story swapping, Koffe-Klatch bull$hitters - period. 1. Being out front of the latest Oilpatch trend - was anyone who sold into the OSX peak in late August - early Sept. - how many here did that & took any SUBSTANTIAL amount of chips off the table there ? - go ahead raise your hands... 2. Being out front of the Nat Gas trend - was anyone who sold & exited the NG specultive - winter weather/Calif Crisis speculative top at the end of December... and how many here did that ? - go ahead & raise your hands. 3. Being out front of the trend was anyone who has kept lots of cash to continually enter, exit & re-enter this rolling trading range & how many here have banged the drum continually on taking profits atop each of these little rallies... few, very few. ... I rest my case. 90% cheerleaders & Bull$hit artists. This is, was and will allways be - a cyclical sector and it's the appearance; not the arrival of peak earnings & commodity prices that trigger the top ~ - repeat 100 times... And - a recession can & will cap all OSX upside and will trigger a 97-98esque collapse in both Oil & Gas prices as well as shareprices much, much faster than anyone realizes & it matters not that the fall is starting at $29 Oil & $5/$6 gas - only that the fall has started... It will be "demand" and not "supply" that is the story going forward - that's a trend I'd identify & think about being "out front of fwiw... demand ~ not, supply. The "smart" money is focusing on demand - the "cheerleaders" are focusing on supply.