Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce Brown who wrote (39281)	2/15/2001 1:12:02 AM
From: tinkershaw	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

like Cisco (P/E 72), EMC (P/E 71), Sun (P/E 42), Microsoft (P/E 32), Intel (P/E 22), Oracle (P/E 22), etc... due to the issue of having to pay a premium in share price for owning the franchise. I'm not interested in looking at how they compare to the 'average' S&P multiple because the franchise premium is a reality both in tech stocks and non tech stocks which we are all well aware. So, I would look at some dominant franchise names like Halliburton (P/E 104), Pfizer (P/E 76), Enron (P/E 72), Coke (P/E 68), Disney (P/E 56), Schwab (P/E 48), General Electric (P/E 36), Harley Davidson (P/E 40), Home Depot (P/E 40), Wal-Mart (P/E 38), Southwest Airlines (P/E 26), Boeing (P/E 25), Citigroup (P/E 22) and Tyco (P/E 22) from the S&P. Gee - Pfizer, Enron and Halliburton alone carry a higher P/E ratio than all the G&K's I listed above. And I would bet that most of the above non-G&K companies are growing slower than the G&K. Hey, but perception is perception. Speaking of G&K, I now understand the resistance to BRCD as an actual gorilla and only a candidate due to the rapidly changing nature of I/O technologies. However, after jumping in full boat (as I tend to never take a half boat) I have feverishly looked for this danger with BRCD. Certainly I can't rule it out. However, what I see is BRCD working with CSCO on IP, ONIS and others on DWDM, BRCD became lead sponsor of the infiniband organization {forget their exact name}, BRCD working with NTAP, whom would be the leader of the gigabet ethernet crowd one would think, etc. This company is fully aware of those problems. I wonder if Cisco had similar difficulties in its young days from rumored alternative technologies? Any Cisco veterans here? But in G&K fashion I did the following analysis: (1) Market certainly in tornado. (2) MArket cap of BRCD, even after its stock crash is still more than the cumulative total of its competitors which I list as follows McData, Qlogic, Gadzooks, Vixel, Inrange (I did not think Emulex a competitor). Market certainly thinks its a powerful gorilla. (3) Have also read analyst reports stating that the fiber-channel market is probably best as a "natural monopoly." (4) 90% fiber-channel market share, 56% system architecture marketshare (whatever that means). Hmmmm, would seem to me that this is a gorilla, but a gorilla in a technology market that is so unsettled that it is subject to rapid discontinuities. I guess that would make it a very excitable gorilla with a hot foot. Well, until I see some more discontinuities, like DS, I'll just continue to hold. Everything else screams POGNOID! Which is why I guess it is in the G&K portfolio. Tinker

To: Bruce Brown who wrote (39281)	2/15/2001 3:09:31 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

When Bruce returns to our stage, he doesn't simply walk on and say, "Hi! I'm back." Nope. Making a grand entrance in full stage make-up and tights, he immediately gets to the heart of the matter and seriously seriously questions Moore's theory that Gorilla Gaming stocks aren't yet selling at multiples "parallel" (whatever that means) with non-tech multiples. Though I still contend that the essence of Moore's comments are mostly irrelevant to Gorilla Gaming and certainly not the domain of his particular expertise, Bruce's anecdotal evidence provides yet more reason for us to focus on the stuff in Moore's manual and distance ourselves from the peripheral stuff (at best) he declares. I can't wait to see Bruce's comments in response to Paul Johnson's thinking that we can't be Gorilla Gamers because everyone in today's market is a trader who can't hold a stock more than a year or two. That should make Bruce's tights get even tighter! Glad to have you back, Bruce! Hope the folks in Tennessee liked your French accent. :) --Mike Buckley

To: Bruce Brown who wrote (39281)	2/15/2001 10:11:16 AM
From: DownSouth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

BB, thanks for putting some PE valuations in perspective. Very valuable insight.

To: Bruce Brown who wrote (39281)	2/15/2001 11:25:29 AM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Is Geoff making investing predictions again? My, oh, my. Has occurred to anyone that it could actually be good to have Moore proven to have clay feet? By sticking his foot in it periodically it keeps G&K from turning into a cult of the individual. Meanwhile this forum keeps trundling along undisturbed (with the exception of some individuals, of course!).

To: Bruce Brown who wrote (39281)	2/15/2001 2:03:02 PM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Hi Bruce, don't know if you caught this...at least one of our fellow travellers is still bullish... nytimes.com "Alberto W. Vilar, an investor who in recent years has become the most generous donor to opera and ballet companies around the world, describes his latest gift, $50 million to the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, as "a project that kills two birds with one stone." ... "Asked whether recent downturns in the market had led him to reconsider his gifts — or whether his continued giving means that he has abandoned high-tech companies — he said that such events did not faze him. "I'm committed to this area, it's the area where I've made my fortune," he said. "I'm a long- term bull." tekboy/Ares@my$50milliongiftwillhavetowaitabit.pov