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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trader X who wrote (229)	2/15/2001 10:02:37 AM
From: Paul Shread	Respond to of 52237

>>COMPX is still in bottom reversal mode<< I absolutely agree with you on this; the market has been in a bottoming process the last two months. If the potential inverse H&S in the SPX is for real, the next major trendlines would begin off yesterday's lows. That said, I posted this on the old SA thread: The one thing I found genuinely disappointing about yesterday was the deterioration of the internals; that has been a huge supporting factor in the market the last two months. Are they dumping the small- and mid-caps now that the big caps have come down far enough in price? If so, combining that with sector rotation would not be very encouraging, because it means the market is still not drawing in substantial enough new money for a new bull move higher. I'll look at what happens today on this big gap up - a gap that we will have to fill before we break out of the current trading range, IMHO - but I think we're heading for a big trading range at worst, not new lows. And the good news is that that gap up is occurring high enough so we have two months to fill it without breaking the 90 COMPX trendline. ;-) In the paranoia department, I'm not so sure yesterday wasn't the work of the Plunge Protection Team, rather than an MM/Max Pain factor, as others have said. The reversal occurred at a vital trendline, easily the most important one of the last decade, and I think they really do watch that line, I believe. On the other hand, the low-volume test of that line meant the bears didn't have enough strength to send us back below it. AMAT was genuinely bullish yesterday, highest-volume up day in more than three years. JPM even made a decent call, telling people to buy before the fundamentals improved; actually showed an understanding of how the markets work for a change. ;-) Reminded me of the big call someone made in August 1982 that lower interest rates were coming, but I can't remember who made that one. Not as big a call as that one, but it showed similar understanding. Gorgeous COMPX chart, by the way. I used to see you on some thread all the time, but for the life of me, I can't remember which one...