Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KyrosL who wrote (67900)	2/15/2001 11:51:21 AM
From: Efthymios H. Zacharias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

I was bearish on the Greek market since 3500 on April 1999. I finally sold between 4500 and 5000 recognizing a mania had developed. It topped out at 6400 on September 1999 and is now at 3200. In 1997 average daily turnaround was 4 billion greek drachmas. At the peak of the mania we saw days of 600 billion. Now we are back to around 30 billion. I just write the above cause the Greek market topped out and crashed eight months before the Nasdaq and in very similar fashion. There was a limit down of 8% (now 12%) so the crash was more protracted. Even at its peak it was far cheaper than the Nasdaq though. I think 2500 - 3000 represents fair value however I'm not going to take the plunge yet as I have seen no true capitulation (we had a few suicides though) and the amount of capital destruction has been of such huge scale for Greek standards that I don't see how this market can resume an uptrend from fair value. It is estimated there was a transfer of wealth of roughly $200 billion from 1/5th of the greek population to foreign institutions and about 100 greek families. Besides if one believes that the US is sitting on the verge then no market worldwide is safe. I would be a buyer between 2000 and 2500 after I've seen capitulation and assuming worldwide prosperity. Here's a java chart. You need to play a bit with it to see the entire bubble and add bands etc. stocksx.in.gr