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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (5351)	2/15/2001 11:43:59 AM
From: Robert Rose	Respond to of 57684

<I think we're out of the woods now. > I have two continuing concerns: 1) Valuations. stocks like jnpr (pe of 210) or cra (p/s of 39) 2) Trends tend to perpetuate themselves until some dramatic event reverses them. The two dramatic rate cuts in Jan weren't enuf to do the trick, and it looks like it will be awhile before there are any more rate cuts. With most earnings reports poor and more of those forcast for the next couple quarters, the downtrend should stay intact. I think chances are greater for negative than positive surprises over the next six months. 2250 looks breachable. thestreet.com <Mutual fund inflows do not suggest a reinvigorated bull market. Most classes of equity funds saw inflows in January down about 50% vs. year-ago levels, he said. Additionally, $50 billion went into tech funds between October 1999 and March 2000, and such funds enjoyed strong inflows at the beginning of this year. Expect "disillusioned investors to express remorse by continuing to redeem" as this year progresses, McManus said. Foreigners are becoming less enamored with U.S. stocks. After purchasing an average of $11 billion a month of U.S. stocks in recent years, Europeans bought just $7.5 billion in November as the euro rallied, he said, November is the most recent month for which the government has released such data. The "cash mountain" on the sidelines is a "mirage." Cash was about 9% of retirement-oriented mutual funds at the end of 2000, he said, the lowest level in 10 years. "There's no indication people are defensive in asset allocation." >

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (5351)	2/15/2001 1:17:06 PM
From: megazoo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57684

We have been out of the woods at least a dozen times since last March, only to be thrown deeper into the jungle. I think the fundamental ideas of technology investing is being examined right now. Does anyone think that even if the bull is back in Nasdaq, JDSU and NTAP (I hold them both) are going to triple in a year or two. I don't think so. I think the Nazdaq bull market will come back soon, but it will be reminiscent of the bull mkt of '95 and '96, as opposed to the one in '99 and early '00. In '95 and '96 P/E did matter, P/S also mattered, and there was still a belief in technology cycle. Market corrections happened every 6 months or so. In '99 and early '00, nothing was of concern as long as it was a .com or a genome stock.