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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (87271)	2/15/2001 12:25:21 PM
From: excardog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

iso Starting to hear the word contango being thrown around by traders: We're a ways away from this:http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=NYMEX_CL But sentiment is a funny thing. Your friend JoeDi from the RIG board said one needs to walk away from the oil market should this event look like it may occur. My take is oil may drop pretty sharply over the next couple months. Then the economy and summer driving season will become the next focus. OPEC's resolve or lack thereof may surely be tested. Since the Saudi's are the ones facing the brunt of the cuts it really may boil down their resolve. Let's all keep a cyber eye open. Best

To: isopatch who wrote (87271)	2/15/2001 12:31:24 PM
From: richard badauskas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Agree, out of trading positions on drillers and E&P and waiting for pullback. Like how PKD took a tumble, rolling over maybe back to $5.50. Bought tech - IATV @ $6.18. This is one of those story book stocks for convergence of TV and the PC with lots of cash and wealthy backers and lots of patents. Technicals look very promising for a decent trade.

To: isopatch who wrote (87271)	2/15/2001 1:28:11 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Tic - Toc the Nat Gas Head & Shoulders Chart tells all ~ WHODATHUNKIT ? ... we'll see the mid-high $3's and ultimately the $2's again - much, much, much sooner than anyone anticipates. This is an unsustainable anomaly; caused by a historic perfect confluence of events - the worst collapse in cap ex spending & drilling activity during two of the mildest back to back winters of recent times - combined with unsustainable LT low Oil & Nat Gas prices - which now have been exacerbated by the very harsh Winter and a speculative push in NG commodity prices due to the California Crisis... which is also unsustainable... ie: there will be no supply, or depletion crisis - and there isn't and wasn't; as naturally the lowest cost - high depletion - quick return projects were brought online first in this recent return of Cap Ex spending. Better depletion & production profile projects are now in the pipeline and coming soon & the larger offshore NG projects are just now heating up. There is "NO NEW PARADIGM" in Natural Gas - period. But ! - can you fault the paid spinmeisters - ie: analysts for using what worked in tech so well of late ? - ie: pumping the "new paradigm" ? Anyone remember GE's Power Generation Backlog that's coming online - enough generation capacity is allready coming on to over-supply even the most aggressive "new paradigm technology boom estimates"... time is all that is needed. $8 Oil & $1.65 Gas were unsustainable - as is $35 Oil and $9, or even $6, or $5, or even $4 Nat Gas. For the 10th time - someone/anyone; show me any demand stats that show that this perceived technology boom is going to produce any sustained demand & consumption numbers that anything even near to present rig counts & drilling activity will not be able to meet and ultimately even "over-supply" ? - that's a rhetorical question by the way - fwiw; because there aren't any. There will be an upward bias pressure to NG prices as we bring the system back to equilibrium -period; that's all - no new paradigm. ...and anyone thinking "NEW PARADIGM" in Nat Gas is hallucinagenic; because quite obviously; the Oil Majors AND the Independant E&P's surely aren't signaling that anyone other than the Blind Bull-Cheerleaders here - whistling in the dark ; believe it... "New Paradigms" ? C'Mon threadsters.... surely you aren't that stupid ~ Fool you once, shame on them; fool you twice (via "new paradigm pumpology) - and shame on you... Look at the NG chart - perfect head & shoulders chart forming - just like the NAZ. .... waiting for a re-test of OSX 115-120 here to re-enter & watching to make sure the coming Q1 Tech-reporting-Wreck doesn't close our OSX rally window. The story with tech was the historic Cap Ex windfall & growth rates that were inflated by this massive & one-time historic IPO Bubble, the Y2K liquidity & cap ex spending that no longer exists and the growth rates generated by this Cap Ex anomaly is unsustainable & we won't see anything near them even off the Recession-bounce in the 2nd half.... wait untill the former Tech Mo-Mo leaders start forecasting 15-20% LT growth vs. 60-100% and see where the NAZ goes...it's tradeable, but not high reward - vs low/moderate risk investable yet imho. I think it still needs 1650-1800 to bottom & return to sanity. This NAZ rally bounce off of one company (Cienna) - which is a mere good news ripple in a pond of bad news - is ludicrous.... PS - JQP; are you going to double down & back yourself into a corner once again - chasing this NG collapse like you did in Sept '99 and with TMR ? ... We're about due for yet another Tear-Jerking - Max Margin Blues, Mea Culpa aren't we ?