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To: Uncle Frank who wrote (39306)	2/15/2001 3:03:26 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Bottom watchers would be more like it <lol>. I've spent enough time with Frank in airports and casinos to know that he watches a lot more than just the bottoms. :) --Mike Buckley

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (39306)	2/15/2001 6:24:23 PM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Welcome home, Bruce. Since your return has coincided with a wee rally, I think it would be in all of our best interests if you refrained from taking any trips until the nasdaq breaks 3000. I don't think we're going to make it there tomorrow before I take off on Saturday AM for another week. Sorry. However, I will take your lead and see how many bottoms I can watch while I am in Italy. <gg> A rally going into the weekend seems rather doubtful - especially in light of the Nortel warning and the reaction it has caused in the after hours. Perhaps it is an individual event such as this that Geoff was thinking about in his comments that the market needs to price this into the valuations to satisfy the institutional investors for each equity. Nortel going from an estimate of .16 cents in EPS to a -.04 cents for the current quarter is a dramatic adjustment in earnings - not to mention the revenue shortfall and full fiscal year lowering of guidance. Those kinds of things do require share price valuations to be looked at and adjusted. On the other hand - the positive one of course - we saw an excellent report from Ciena this morning for the January ending quarter of 22% sequential revenue growth, 130% y/y revenue growth, EPS growth from .03 to .18 y/y (500%), guidance raised for full year revenue growth from last quarter's estimates of 75 - 85% up to 95 - 105%. While some legacy network companies like Nortel suffer, the focused next generation network players benefit in receiving more of the budgeted dollars: ``There is no question that economic factors are causing service providers to more carefully scrutinize where they spend their budget dollars,'' said Gary Smith, Ciena's president and chief operating officer. ``It is just this sort of dynamic that we believe is benefiting Ciena by accelerating the shift from cumbersome, legacy network architectures to less costly, more efficient, intelligent next-generation optical network architectures.'' biz.yahoo.com Plenty of speculation as to if the full brunt of the slowdown will be felt in Q1 or Q2 from the previous slowing effects of capital markets and interest rate increases. It certainly makes it a difficult environment, but I find it interesting to study Cisco's y/y and sequential quarterly growth back in 1989 - 1991 during that recession. The manual breaks down those numbers as it talks about Cisco's early tornado markets. As have moved through the past two quarters and into the next two, it will be interesting if younger companies in their hypergrowth like Ciena and the other NGN players can 'weather' the growth storm such as Cisco did a decade ago. BB