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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jane4IceCream who wrote (87281)	2/15/2001 2:03:34 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

Girl Friday... I stopped out substantially at the break of 130 - I've got 5% Tech, 15% Oil, 30% gold & 50% Cash. I've got a small piece of PGO & NR as my laggards in that 15% Oil holding; watching for PKD at $5, or under; RIG low $40's, any of the GOM drillers back at OSX 115-118 prices; I still have some $56ish CAM in here - but, like the offshore drillers best on this pullback which wasn't hard to anticipate; as it's more from a lack of buying pressure, than exit selling - but; for our "March to April/May" Oilpatch Rally - we need for "Greenpimp's Ghost" to be kept in the closet & for the coming "Tech-Wreck Q1 reporting" to be met with buying & bottom calling.... otherwise our "window" could be closed by Mr. RECESSION becoming much, more widely accepted & him being an "extended stay" guest vs. just a one-two quarter anomaly... Hard to imagine this Y2K & IPO Bubble all being "Cured" by a two-quarter inventory correction-mini recession... Skeptical & very protective of my chips here and I like 50% Cash for both Offensive & Defensive reasons here...and I wouldn't blink twice about going to 25-30% gold & all cash on a moments notice here. If all goes right - we might even see a "marginable" re-entry to the Oilpatch here in 2-3 weeks if Tech behaves & doesn't ruin the party - but, it's a day by day evolution here... Nothing looks, smells,or feels like a Tech bottom to me here... yes; there is one hell of a lot of money available & yes; bullish sentiment recovered nicely and if they remain - that's all it takes for a nice NAZ rally - but, that won't sustain the rally thru what Q1 tech reporting is going to bring imho. With all these mfg layoffs - that are now being seen in techland along with the Q1 Tech reporting Wreck that I think is coming; that sentiment may change that very shortly... and the Q1 Tech Wreck will endorse a strong case for a strong "Recessionary" environment - and the Oilpatch will NOT rally to new highs in that environment - quite the opposite actually... we may actually see the "True" mid-cycle bottom - a re-test of OSX 94, or even the 97-98 mid-cycle bottom of OSX 80 and take 3-4 months to ride it out before recovering along with tech in the 2nd half.