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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (87282)	2/15/2001 2:31:59 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Jim L - agreed that "small cap's" in NG - DO have upside... I hold EEX and even ole' MEXP here; but not in any ridiculous size. Balance sheet turnarounds, take out plays & exploration stories will all be able to move to new highs; but anything in that 7-10 x cfps valuation area that's a mo-mo fav; or even 6-7 times; may rollover here & never come back - because no one - NO ONE; is going to pay more for a NG E&P with $25ish Oil and $3, $4, or even $5 NG on the horizon - IN A SLOWING ECONOMY (hello 97-98 deja vu - asian contagian); after exiting a $5-$9 NG & $35 oil environment druing a Boom economy... no one. Another thing that amazes me here - given the NG Guru's here (VBG); is why hasn't anyone talked about what 5-7 x cfps at $7 to $9 NG is "multiple-wise" at $3.25 ? The E&P's rolled over first in the 97-98 cycle - they are commodity price pureplay's - thus early cycle plays and in case anyone hasn't noticed - both Elvis and "Mr. Early Cycle" have left the building... Clearly the drillers and service co's benefiting by what will be sustained drilling levels - increasing dayrate & eps numbers for drillers while simultaneously increasing costs for E&P's and higher rig counts also negatively pressure commodity prices and the depletion rates will turn very naturally as the high return/quick depletion projects were NATURALLY the first one's brought to market here - it amazes me that no one here is talking about this obvious & quite expected anomaly in the early cycle Nat Gas supply recovery cycle.... cycle, cycle, cycle, cycle, - as in cyclical, cyclical, cyclical..... ! Damn; you'd think CRK was a growth stock (VBG) and $10 bucks is a hell of a long way from $15 now isn't it ? ... but the NG stocks haven't rolled over now - have they ? ... not in denial land here on this thread anyway. ... and the NG chart doesn't look like the NAZ , or NIKKEI head & shoulders chart either ; now does it ? ... California is going to take us to new paradigm land isn't it ? ... record earnings are going to take CRK to $20, or $30 - not $10 ? This is still a point in the cycle to try to scalp the middle 50% to perhaps 75% of each move - nothing more, nothing less - this is NOT an environment where "Hero's" are made, but rather lots of "zero's"... The "BIG & EASY" money - high reward - low/moderate risk environment no longer exists... it can't given the economy & the Oilpatch's relationship to it. The rollover is too quick and the ultimate final rollover (if not even underway here allready (VBG) - will lead to a complete & total roundtrip - if not even a net loss for 65% of threadsters here; as they become blind-bulls mesmerized by the present fundamentals staring them in the face & not the underlying cyclicality of the beast itself... It's NO LONGER THE FUNDAMENTALS for all the "Kollmnhites" out there - it's the NATURE OF THE BEAST that's key here & the "beast" is cyclical, cyclical, cyclical, cyclical, cyclical, cyclical,,, C-Y-C-L-I-C-A-L !!!!!!!!!!!!!! - got it ? PS: - let's see how many who have continually been fully invested & not selling here - buying the stock the "amateurs" were dumping here of late; keep buying here with their evidently - endless fountain of youth buying power ? How does one who never sold & is fully invested keep buying dip, after dip ? - rolfmao ~ JQP - got CRK ?... got TMR Sept 1999 Deja-Vu all over again ? I'm sure we'll all hear about those who get a $9 to $11 CRK trading bounce; but what about those that bought the dip from $15 at $13, at $12 and at $11, $10 and then - $9 ;) - huh "Q" ?