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To: BigBull who wrote (87299)	2/15/2001 3:25:09 PM
From: BigBull	Respond to of 95453

What? BHI warns? Anybody got DOE's? biz.yahoo.com Gasoline getting whacked. Bad DOE's?

To: BigBull who wrote (87299)	2/15/2001 3:42:40 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Bullsky re: GDP ... I dont think my "crystal ball" is in the league of those who do, or don't see 2 qtrs of contracting GDP. Rather than the downside being so deep, prolonged or sharp; which it may become & I think the natural odds are to under-estimate a downturn; rather than over-estimate it - coming out of a Boom Bubble - where buy the Dip is the mantra...> - it's the much lower upside that I see - much lower growth rates for earnings & revenue after we exit the downturn and much, much lower Cap ex spending for tech. We saw an anomaly burst-blip in tech cap ex spending - Y2K, the IPO boom , the internet infrastructure buildout, the desktop boom and this massive liquidity pump - it's lower growth rates that will require valuation multiple contraction - hence much, much lower valuations that I see coming that will keep contracting the NASDQ - nice tradeable 400-500 point rallies; BUT still within an overall Bear trend. CIEN at a PE of 294 here - up 20% ? - in for a short trade/ partial position; will add add 120 & 150. Short PPRO AMZN this week in initial partial entires - I think PPRO goes to zero & I never cover... AMZN mid single digits and CIEN is a $50 stock in a positive environment when multiples contract & a $35 fair value stock here. NAZ really needs to see 1650-1800 fundamentally AND technically imho - I can not believe that this bubble gets "cured" in a 2 qtr inventory cleansing... I read a newspaper of a mid-sized blue-collar rust belt city today - business section had the following headline - Goodyear lays off 7,000; Nat Steel lays off xxxx... on & on... layoffs & cutbacks; from Chrysler to Dell... add the heating bills & let a few neighbors, or church members, or relatives get laid off & consumer sentiment is going to do a 180 on Main Street USA imho and tax time isn't far off either... Nothing makes sense here - we have a negative saving rate & the worst credit quality from consumers to corporate in banking history - all atop an equity bubble with full employment that now is coming to an end... and consumer spending is GDP - and with everyone from Chrysler to Dell laying off - how are 4% vs. 6%, or 7% vs. 9% rates going to change anything ? Auto mfg's are offering 0.9% financing & can't sell cars ? Are telcoms going to spend more - because rates got cut 2% ? We've pumped & printed soooooooo many "Dollars" into the system - that the US Dollar has to break somewhere ... Hmmmm; on CNBC a Technician see's O&G emerging from a 20 year underperform cycle - maybe there's hope for Gold as well ~ ... back to the sweet peacefull comfort of 50% CASH ~

To: BigBull who wrote (87299)	2/15/2001 3:50:23 PM
From: excardog	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

NYMEX Oil: Crude Down on Technical Weakness, Gasoline Slump Feb. 15-MAR-- By Melanie Lovatt, BridgeNews New York--Feb. 15--NY crude oil futures continued to make heavy losses as Thursday's session wore on, amid technical weakness and a big slump in gasoline prices. At 1412 ET Mar crude was down 87 cents, 2.9%, at $28.84 per barrel after dropping to a two-week low of $28.60, while Mar gasoline was down 313 pts, 3.6%, at 84.85c per gallon after a two-week low of 84.30c. * * * Brokers said that gasoline was coming off sharply as players who had bought it against heating oil reversed these positions. "With gasoline still a lot stronger in price than heating oil, we see gasoline under yet more pressure and a shake out of more people at these levels," said one broker. Mar heating oil was down only 91 points or 1.2% at 76.20c. Brokers noted that the differential between heating oil became too wide, earmarking gasoline for a selloff. Mar gasoline ran up to a three-month high of 93.70c per gallon last week, becoming over-extended on the upside. Also pressuring gasoline was talk that Russian cargoes are headed to N.Y. Harbor. This will impact the nearby contracts, said one broker. "It can be blended to meet winter grade specs, but it can't meet the summer specs," he explained. Another broker explained that gasoline inventories had been low in the runup to the summer season and that talk of more cargoes heading to N.Y. Harbor is taking "some of the bullishness out of the market." Heavy Q1 refinery maintenance in the U.S. continues to lure gasoline imports to the Atlantic Coast, particularly from Europe and the Mediterranean. A BridgeNews survey late January came up with about 20 million barrels of East Coast-bound gasoline cargo fixtures. Meanwhile, Mar crude's slip under $30 has left it looking weak, with one broker warning key support at the $28.60 area (at Thursday's session low so far) looks in danger of being taken out. Brokers noted that losses were exacerbated in Thursday's session, as locals "jumped in front of everyone." They noted that with all the buying last week, which took crude prices higher, players are looking to liquidate some longs. "The longs are getting very nervous," said one broker. "We closed very negative Wednesday and the chart pattern weakness carried over in today's trading," said Tom Bentz, energy analyst at BNP Paribas. He noted that the price also came off after Wednesday's Mar option expiration, with a large portion of in-the-money calls abandoned as players "felt the price would continue lower." Also pushing crude lower was the narrowing of the Mar-Apr backwardation, which slipped to under 10c. The backwardation has been compressed over the last few weeks and players predict that if the spread moves flat, or to a contango, it will have a negative impact on overall prices. While technical weakness was responsible for much of crude's losses, talk of economic slowdowns is also weighing on the market. U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill said Thursday that the world economy is beginning to slow "somewhat" and warned that the globally, the U.S. should not be relied upon as an engine of global growth (story .17205). End