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To: A.L. Reagan who wrote (10267)	2/15/2001 11:45:51 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13572

I have determined that the corporate executives on whose sales guidance Alan Greenspan is relying for monetary policy are: Hey, could be worse... he could rely on economists and derivatives wonks. <gg> You really cracked me up with that quote you lifted from him on how important productivity is to the recovery. Here's some grist for your mill from an astute observer, Caroline Baum of Bloomberg.com: Then again, the Fed missed the slowdown, so it's entirely possible that the Fed can be dead wrong about the retrenchment being limited. Greenspan used three- to five-year earnings projections to bolster his case that corporate America is bullish on ``the potential for innovations to continue to enhance productivity and profits.'' Those forecasts carry about as much information on the near- term cyclical outlook as that contained in the thinly traded six- year crude oil futures contract, which the Fed chief cited last October as a price signal. quote.bloomberg.com Every so often, the good Chairman seems to be intent on being part of a lunatic fringe. His views on the permanence of productivity gains tends to fall into this delusional departure from diligent and dutiful decision making. Has anyone checked his expiration date lately? And could it possibly be that we are dealing with a vulnerable ego? ``A temporary glut in these (high-tech manufacturing) industries and falling prospective rates of return were inevitable at some point,'' he said. The alternative view -- that the aftereffects of a long period of over-investment in information technology, manifested by a stock market bubble, will take a long time to correct -- is not his view at the moment. Nor should we expect it to be. If Greenspan were to own up to a burst bubble, he might have to accept some responsibility for creating it, not to mention puncturing it. Just wondering, Ray :)