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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimbaBear who wrote (12035)	2/15/2001 6:10:15 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78476

I happened on to a TEV/EBITDA in the Merril report on IP, any idea what it means? A memory surfaced that EVA stands for Enterprise Value Added, so EVA/Earnings might be a misnomer. Regarding VIAN- I still nick them for heavy insider sales despite the stock representing almost pure cash, no premium for the business. I suspect insiders are monetizing a concept while they have a chance. That is a heavy negative for management quality if true. Raping the shareholders for personal gain isn't ethical, IMHO. RichDadPoorDad talks about the difference between a qualified investor and a sophisticated investor. In his opinion, the smart guys are the ones creating the paper that you and I buy. We are taking the risk, while management uses our money to see if they can make a go of it. I understand this, and play the game anyway. But for management to be pulling money out of the game in VIAN's style, _before_ they've proven themselves as a public company, well... I guess they proved themselves before the IPO- right? And the IPO is just an opportunity for them to reap their just rewards. In the next post, I'll share some work I did today on IP vs some foreign, underfollowed Pulp and Paper concerns. DSET also has some insider sales, but they didn't seem to be sourced from the excersize of options at pennies per share. CYSV had some appeal, heavy insider ownership but trading near cash with a small loss in the most recent quarter. Of the stocks I looked at, they would be the most likely to get bought, after further investigation. For example, is there a lockup expiration pending? How much did the current shareholders invest to obtain their healthy portions of the company?

To: TimbaBear who wrote (12035)	2/15/2001 6:27:56 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78476

Paper & Pulp Companies- comparison of International vs Domestic This is an attempt to determine the relative valuation of a group of international players against a favorite local. Earnings are based on the most recent quarters report, and where required, currencies have been translated to the US dollar. CA-CL estimated for SPP. It is quite clear that the domestic favorite, rated Buy/Buy trades at a substantial premium. It is also interesting that a different analyst follows each stock, and most of the analysts following the foreign plays recommend caution in light of weaker pulp pricing in the face of a demand slowdown, but this apparently doesn't concern the IP analyst. Numbers may be in error, but I tried to get it right<G> MktVal is my estimate of the market valuation based on reported earnings. Or, EV/Earnings annualized MarketCap EV MktVal EV/EBITDA Ranking TEV/EBITDA IP $539,168,000 $18,245,060,000 $27,906,060,000 51.76 Not rptd Buy/Buy 9.2 AMCR $129,076,200 $7,489,200,000 $8,116,100,000 62.88 7.4 Accm/Buy UPM $934,872,204 $7,419,151,200 $10,249,119,000 10.96 4 Neu/Accum SPP $323,408,000 $1,919,046,000 $3,219,046,000 9.95 3.1 Neu/Buy 3.4 DTC $382,821,588 $1,491,648,000 $1,874,121,000 4.9 Not Fllwd 2.6