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To: Nancy who wrote (8984)	2/16/2001 7:09:44 AM
From: Jurgen Trautmann	Respond to of 11051

markets went down after hours - sad outlook? ...without overwhelming fundamtental news: OK, this NT-warning sounds ugly - but new? Now we've learned again that NT is not the great exception under telcoms - surprise? And DELL? I read the whole statement and it sounds quite strong to me. More, there's another clear hint to solid server-demand. Dell brougth - compared to f.e. CPQ or GTW - sensational numbers esp. for the last quarter. (after this DELL is again my favorite (#2 next to AMD), I will try to get some bargains next week) The after-hours reaction? The servers-winners lost: Dell close 25 after hours 23 11/16 Sunw close 27 3/16 after hours 26 1/2 IBM close 116 7/8 after hours 115 The marketshare-losers lost too: HWP close 36.35 after hours 34.51 GTW close 20.95 after hours 20 The CPU's lost: AMD close 26.23 after hours 25.6 INTC close 35 13/16 after hours 35 1/4 (at least here ("Servers <=> Intel-CPU's") a certain logic can be read) Of cours, NT is champion-loser: NT close 29.75 after hours 22.34 and... CSCO close 30 13/16 after hours 28 3/8 still is expensive! It's the usual picture: Unspecific reaction over whole sectors, blind selling after blind buying, use of technical indicators in a technical bad describable market-situation. Guess when today Robinsons & Freitags leave Nancy-Island* they will buy pharmaceutics and oil again (throwing down this tasty cocktail with Coke's soon coming drug "PE100"). Technic-believers will not enter again before jan 2 - lines are "tested"; but that should happen during coming week, and which fundamentals could track markets up next week? (Expect Greenspan's next "reaction" again at St. Claus <g>) Give me hope, Susanna! (Susanna? can't remember each name..) Jury * "reversal": nasd moved from about -52% to about -44% (seen from his heights) - that was a (probably temporary) compensation of 8% of total loss; how different charts look depending on time-frame: when I'm looking at a 60-min-chart it's looking like the begin of a up-trading-range with a down-break at jan 14. when I'm looking at a daily-chart (subsuming the above mentioned retest) I read Nancy's island. when I'm looking at a monthly chart it's just going through a reversal short (1 month) after the deepest point. Give us the longterm-sight of past years back, establish a minimum-age for investors/traders and we will face again healthier markets?

To: Nancy who wrote (8984)	2/16/2001 7:48:37 AM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11051

N> Hit & Run... ...that's what Berney & Paul (Gersh?) have been doing for some time now, Nancy: Hit & Run. I think Berney is using stock, and that he compounds all those 4-7% gains; otoh, I think Paul is using options, and prolly is not compounding; ie., taking ever-larger positions (or employing all his kapital, as Berney often does) - ask him. iirc, Berney is managing/trading (large) IRA/401K's so, he's either LONG or idling in CASH:MM% _ I was curious to see / experience how a "textbook" buy-and-hold constant equity basis w/covered calls would work. Managing the constant equity basis is simple enough: you can pre-enter BUY and SELL LIMIT orders to maintain $100K equity (or whatever) and the whole thing is mechanical. The underlying assumption is, of course ~ growth ~ because lower-lows decay the equity basis... so, you really need that long-term, investor-friendly UpTrend ! The only time finesse is required is when to sell those covered CALLs. Interestingly, buying those CALLs back ~ uncorking the bottle, so-to-speak, is not as critical as when to write - because, you can always sell another CALL. But imho the big lesson-learned for me vis-a-vis "the textbook approach" is that, regardless of your CCALL writing finesse : when the downside extent is greater than ~10%, you're better off getting the hell out ! -Steve