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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brendan W who wrote (12044)	2/16/2001 1:45:57 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78602

CX, LAF. I'm going to add CX to the thread's list of 3 people buying, unless I get some objections. We have you, me, and cpabob (purchased last year). I'll use the current price ($20.65) although this is not the price at which you bought ($19) or I did. (I've got purchases between 20-23.) So the fluctuating price of CX on that list won't be totally reflective of us three buyers or of anyone who bought when we did, but it would be for anyone considering buying now. fwiw, I believe we've got 2 buyers at least for LAF. Somebody here?? - but I can't recall who - said they steeled themselves and stepped in to buy LAF recently at about 23 as it started moving away from their preferred buy point under 20. With LAF now above $30, that seems to have been a very good decision. (I am monitoring LAF - have no position.) Paul S.

To: Brendan W who wrote (12044)	3/10/2001 1:42:04 PM
From: Brendan W	Respond to of 78602

Buffett's 2000 letter is available.... berkshirehathaway.com I haven't done much in the last month. Moved some money into money center financials (AXP, MER, MWD, STT). I keep looking at tech without much luck. The average forward PE on the names I want is 48! I did buy some KEMET at $17 on a PE basis.. it's supposed to earn $3.95 in 2001. Also, I bought some ADC Telecom (ADCT) on a PEG basis at $12. I heard it described as the hardware store for the telecom industry with an inventory of 30,000 parts. I think historical and estimated eps growth is > 20 percent. I bought some United Rentals (URI) at $17 on a free cash flow basis. This is an equipment rental company with a $1.3 billion market cap. The CEO estimates $390 million in 2001 FCF from operations. The company has a lot of low-grade debt (Moody's b3). I'm hoping the company benefits from long-term secular trends towards equipment rentals. I bought an Austrian ADR, Head N.V. (HED) at $4.71 on a PE basis. The company has forecasted 2001 eps of 82 cents. Currently, it has $182 market cap, $400 million in trailing sales, $72 million in debt, book value of $230 million. Per Morgan Stanley research the company has leading market share in ski bindings (tyrolia), diving equipment (mares), and tennis balls (Penn). I took a large position in Holderbank. Similar story to Cemex but a much higher valuation. I like both of them and I wanted money on both horses. It trades as an OTC bulletin board Swiss ADR with a ticker of HFGCY. The trailing PE is in the mid teens and it trades around book value. Look here for some info: swissinvestnt.swissinvest.rolotec.ch Non-taxable sales include: some $9 and $12 Reebok at $30, sold the second to last of my nursing home debacles Beverly Enterprises at $8.44 for an annualized gain of 7 percent... still holding Manorcare... sold $6 Allied Waste at $17 (still holding in a taxable account).

To: Brendan W who wrote (12044)	3/23/2001 12:25:28 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78602

Brendan W., fwiw, I'm trading out of a couple of the stocks we both own or have owned: I've sold my position in SKO. Stock is still undervalued imo, but I've lost my confidence. Seeing the business as half empty vs. half full. Their difficulty in being a Wal Mart competitor. SKO stock is up from lows (but way down from past high). Taking what profit I can now in this tough environment for retailers. Sold my UNM position. I've got my double or so, and I don't see now where the company or stock is going. Further gains possible with UNM, but I believe I see better values elsewhere. (And I've been wrong many, many times.) -------------------------------------- I'm starting an exploratory position in SKP. They're a physician insurance operation based in California. SKP sells at about 21 with a book value of 32 and not-so-great profits. Of course, it's in a competitive business and one that seems to engender policy mispricings that can have devastating results to a company's earnings. For SKP, I'd be looking for maybe a good year to show 10% ROE and the company stock to be selling then at book value. stocksheet.com Still holding a bunch of insurance stocks including ALL. Paul S.