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To: The Ox who wrote (87384)	2/16/2001 9:37:45 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Michael Happel - you can't lie & change reality. Michael - the OSX ramped from OSX 47 to 75 in 3 weeks - up 50% from the date of your post - so now we are to believe that I owned only the stocks you cherry-picked/charted ? You're a moron & a petty jealous dweeb... I didn't own MEXP, TCMS, MDR, FGH or any of the stocks you posted there on "max margin" in March '99. Anyone can go back to the 38,000 series of posts on this thread during the spring of 1999 & see what I & everyone else owned then fwiw. You "cherry picked " what ever were the worst performers of the entire oilpatch - not what I owned & that's being a scumbag and a liar. I think many here realize that I was bullish on FGH when being bullish paid & bearish when being bearish paid. TCMS - I did own in the 1997-98 cycle when it & OMNI were "darling" small caps & FGI(FGH) was the King of the Mo-Mo's & even HLX was a rock and Hvide Marine was a pocket rocket - but; that was not the time frame we are speaking about. The 97-98 cycle made a ton of money & then lost a ton of money for many, many threadsters here - myself included; I've never denied that - ever. For me; it's where I made my "bones" - yes; I rolled over with the "June 98' Swoon" and did so "large" - so did virtually everyone else in the world - but; what separated me from many others is I learned via baptism by fire - the lessons of "cyclical" investing - I didn't repeat my mistakes. I came out smarter & stronger and did very well - getting back to "whole" during the incredible quadruple bottom trading range from Aug '98 to March '99 of the OSX 45 bottom. Trading that rolling trading range - made me more of an active trader and made me my money back from the earlier cycle rollover - it also taught me respect AND fear - two things that any trader must have & can ONLY get thru the experience of living it with one's own money. I also learned one of the great truism's in this market; that being - that one makes the "big & easy" money by allways selling too soon... Since that June '98 Swoon - I have continually been chastised by the pom-pom crowd here for taking heavy profits and even shorting the tops of our intr-cycle runs here. I learned to play the rolling trading ranges/waves within the broader cycle, I learned to use "stops", to ALLWAYS continually sell into major rallies and to only use margin on high reward - low/moderate risk opps; and to be patient and to "average in" to bottoms and to "average out of tops". Going to your specific's Mike; For the record - I did buy MEXP the "day" it collapsed on April 1st (not March) re: Message 8653356 The hullabaloo over MEXP - was that someone asked me on a day much later in time after we allready made a ton of money in Mexp; when MEXP was selling off on heavy volume & no news - "what would I do ?" (when I had no position at the time - I can link "all" those posts Mikey boy) and I said - " I would sell & get out, let the smoke clear & find out what was going on and then re-enter if conditions warranted... and not hold in a downdraft". - from that point - the stock tanked hard for what ever reason. ...those that got out immediately made money & got to buy back much cheaper. I never hid the fact that I trade & flip and I was allready out of the stock when I said "sell". Where all the "stink" came from is from those who think once you buy - you must hold untill you die; they held threw the blow off - then capitulated at the bottom, then missed the re-entry & trading opp. I can't help that they didn't listen - MEXP is clearly understood by anyone who listened - if they did; they made money. But, yes - later I did say I thought MEXP would see $5 by Xmas; but I didn't sit in dead money - never do... if you sold when I said sell and bought when I said buy - you did very well in MEXP. I don't think anyone has any qualms with any trading calls I made - "in & out" of MEXP; just the $5 by Xmas comments and shame on any moron who sat in dead money... but; you know what - that's all a moot point anyway. If anyone bought & held from the original "MEXP" post on April 1st 1999 - they've got a near triple in the bank - so where's the beef ? Michael in all seriousness - you are a "straddler" - you allways like to "claim" you have a toe in the water" - so when your anti-Slider calls are wrong; you can come back & say - "hey, I had money in the sector" etc... I hammered you into the ground on about 5 prior occassions because you came out the "Strongest" at EXACTLY the worst possible moments - just like in "march '99" when you said - quote - unquote - "it may take 5 YEARS for these stocks to make money" and posted all that Bull$hit about endless supplies of Oil and Gas.... could you literally have been MORE wrong at a more imperfect moment - as the OSX ramped 50% in 3 weeks - the largest & fastest move it EVER has made in it's history ! - literally, hours after yet another of your classic "foot in mouth" anti-Slider posts ? And now you are not seeing the deterioration in tech which is accelerating more rapidly; than Greenspans money pump & rate cuts can stop the bleeding. You think shorting AMZN here during a time when accessing capital is giving companies like Lucent troubles is not valid ? - so be it. You think entering an initial short position in CIEN - when they didn't own up to an inventory problem off a one day 20% pop with a PE of 275 & at 28 x sales - when the rest of the sector is collapsing is a good play - so be it; we'll see what CIEN does today fwiw ~ But, Mikey - you are missing THE ENTIRE POINT here: It's not the "call" that is value to fellow posters here on these threads; it's the "thinking process & the idea's and the "why" behind the call" - that can be bounced around & jar the thinking process & the perspective of fellow traders & investors. The "why" of the call is the value here - not the "what" of the call ! ... and you & most other threadsters here fail to understand that... "THAT" is why I rail on you Buffoons ~ Any moron can throw out a call here & many continually do; but those who don't explain their reasoning - are worthless; it's the "why" behind the "what" that creates value in these discussion threads. Also; those who whimper little "bear cries" and lay out all the negatives; but who never actually come out & take a stand one way, or the other; don't cut it either... This thread is full of "Straddlers" - those who continually present the "better than 50:50 chance of _ _ _ _ happening" etc... That's all fine for discussion sake; but please - straddlers & pontificators - don't come out later & self-congratulate yourselves for a "non-call"... present the info & make a stand before you want to pop up out of your weasel hole & pat yourself on the back. Michael; what you & others here are missing in what is perhaps becoming the classic "capitulation" phase of the Bear market is what is actually needed for the Bulls to really by technically & fundamentally bullish & that is a clear & obvious washout that we have yet to see. The Street hates the unknown & no one in Techland is able to give ANY clear guidance here. They don't know what the 2nd Half holds here & THAT is not what bottoms, or recoveries are made of... that is where "amateur's" learn to not try to catch falling knives, or make "Mad Max Margin" braggadoccio moves... It is not about the Technology revolution being dead, it is not about growth, or earnings not being superior in tech but rather - IT's THE VALUATION MULTIPLES - STUPID ! Growth rates may very well NEVER see the rates we just had in what can only be termed a capital & credit Bubble. We just saw all these IPO's pumped out - with all their cap ex $, we saw an explosion in Credit Expansion , Money Supply & Liquidity that created the greatest Sector Cap Ex explosion in history - and these companies that were born of this Credit Bubble spent that venture capital money creating the bubble's extension and final top here - in that these rates of Cap Ex Spending - and thus growth; are unsustainable. The only reason we saw a departure from the historic valuation multiple metrics during this Naz bubble was because the liquidity, the funding & the Cap Ex faucet was streaming non-stop. But ! - that's done. We had a Cap Ex bubble that created a valuation metric bubble - we can now put a fork in both concepts - they are done; no more Cap Ex bubble & hence the collapse in valuation metrics leading to a collapse in shareprices. There have been numerous tradeable bounces within the broader - still sustained Bear Trend in the NAZ & I have a healthy respect for the amount of money that is still in this market and the near unshakeable sentiment of investors to keep buying dip, after dip, after dip. But reality has dictated that the rates of growth - which were fueled by that historic infusion of venture capital & liquidity was not just unsustainable - it has ended and it is collapsing. We will no longer see entire sectors showing these 60-100% growth rates - now we are seeing numerous 50-100% "growers" talking about 15-20% sustained growth - which is admittedly still quite bullish; but is NOT supportive of PE's of 294 - ala CIEN. That "game" is over folks and we DO need a NAZ 1600-1800 final "Capitualation" washout to cleanse the market. Whether we get one, or not; it's a fool's game to think there is high reward - low/moderate risk opportunities by trading this still intact downward Bear trend in Tech. ... and O'Neill just opened the Golden Bull door with what I allready knew - that he is NOT a King Dollar interventionists - per his comments reported today. Unlike Rubin & Greenpimp; he believes a strong economy - creates a strong dollar and that the Dollar is a "natural" not a manipulated by-product of a strong economy. O'neill recognizes the Catch-22 that Greenpimp & Rubin corned us into - that being that the continued manipulation of the US Dollar is creating stress fractures in other global economies & currencies and in itself - virtually insures - if did not create the recession & collapse of the US manufacturing sector. US corporate earnings CAN NOT & WILL NOT recover - with King dollar. King Dollar is UNSUSTAINABLE with our current account deficit & manipulation the DOLLAR into the face of our deficit - will create the "mother of all Pay me now, or pay me later" nightmares. I repeat - Greenspan saw a ghost when he tried to rush bank failure reform thru congress; he see's a ghost in the derivative exposure of key US banks, he see's a ghost in Energy prices, he see's a ghost in the Short the Euro & Gold - Long the US Dollar/US Equity Indicies derivative monster that is about to implode... Welcome the "ghost" - embrace it... The Door for Gold was just opened by O'Neill today with his comments... don't doddle - get gold & get it now; remember that a 30% portfolio exposure to gold stocks - kept one even thru the entire 1929 crash. I've added Gold to 60% at the open/pre-market and am selling ALL my Oils into strength here - ALL; because Oils do NOT hold, let alone rise during a market shakeout - sell into the flight to safety rotation strength here - it won't stick short term & I think we get to re-buy OSX 115ish, if not less. I also added more tech shorts - am now short 20% tech with 20% cash at the open here fwiw.. and we'll see if stopping out of the OSX at 130 & dumping even my remaining Oil laggrds this am into strength & increasing Gold, having had Cash & going short-tech is a good trade here or not Mikey boy... hope people got positioned in the after-market last night, or pre-market this am - which was really a bit late... What CIEN giveth - NT taketh away... The Bear is BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACK ~ ... and only those with CASH are acting & not re-acting here - WHODATHUNKIT ? Let's see if we get the MOABO... Ciao ~