Hi Ponderosa; Re: "I'd be grateful if you would explain in a nutshell what exactly this indicates..."
Sure. Rambus management has publicly, repeatedly, stated that RDRAM will be the next mainstream memory type, and DDR is too late and too little to stop it. The industry, as indicated by trade articles, believes that DDR will be the next mainstream memory type.
In this context, the proliferation of DDR motherboards available on PriceWatch is an indication that Rambus management is not being realistic in their appraisal of the memory industry.
By the way, it is now only 2 days since Feb 14, when I noted that there were 66 DDR motherboards for sale on Pricewatch. Now there are 70.
pricewatch.com
-- Carl
P.S. Rambus management has consistently overestimated the future of RDRAM, underestimated the future of DDR, and got the pricing between the two completely reveresed. Intel was on the same boat for a while, but has been surprisingly quiet recently. Here are some articles of interest:
Rambus, June 22, 1998
rambus.com
Here's Rambus sure that the industry is not getting ready for the big burst in production they need. (g)
Rambus, Aug 21, 1998
Rambus sees possible shortage of chip-scale packages in '99
Chip-scale packages (CSPs) could be in short supply next year if its Direct Rambus DRAMs (D-RDRAMs) are quickly adopted, warned Rambus Inc. chief executive officer Geoff Tate. Rambus said it hopes that its 10 RDRAM licensees will ship between 100 million and 200 million D-RDRAMs next year. For density and electrical reasons, Rambus designed its D-RDRAM with chip-scale packaging, but few of Rambus' 14 DRAM partners have installed volume CSP production capability, Tate said.
eetimes.com
Here's an example of Rambus demonstrating their incredible visibility into the future of the memory industry, LOL:
Rambus, June 11, 1999
Intel Not Ruling Out PC133 SRAM Support
“PC133, may or may not gain acceptance in mainstream PCs, but it's not a competitor to Rambus as far as we're concerned,” said Geoff Tate, Rambus' president and chief executive, speaking at an investment conference last week in San Francisco.
Here's Micron being right and Rambus being wrong about the future of RDRAM prices. Note that the actual premium for RDRAM vs SDRAM is still well above 100%, even for direct buyers:
Rambus, Aug 30, 1999
IDF: Micron, Rambus address DRAM cost issues
Meanwhile, Rambus chief executive officer Geoff Tate said in an interview that the company is addressing issues on several fronts to cut Direct RDRAM costs to just a 10 percent premium over SDRAM by the end of next year. [i.e. 12/00] Current RDRAM prices are at least twice those of standard SDRAM. Jeff Mailloux, DRAM marketing manager for Micron, doesn't see RDRAM's premium over mainstream SDRAM falling below 50 percent anytime soon.
A statement from Intel, from back when they were still (publicly at least) devoted backers of RDRAM:
Intel, Feb 17, 2000
Inevitable transition
At the Developer Forum's memory road map session this week, MacWilliams told a room crowded with engineers: "Any way we cut it, the transition is from SDRAM to RDRAM."
eetimes.com
June 22, 2000
Rambus bulls aren't deterred, though — they're confident RDRAM will eventually become the next standard for memory. Intel, they believe is the trump card. "If Intel wants it…it's going to get accepted," says Dataquest's Handy."
chasefunds.com
Here's Rambus challenging the suggestion that DDR could be sold cheaper than RDRAM last October. Talk about visibility into the market!!!
Rambus, Oct 27, 2000
AMD Moves Athlon To DDR
Announcing the company's earnings last week, the chief executive of Rambus Inc., Geoff Tate, had said the Direct Rambus technology was the only one offering validation services to its customers. Tate also challenged pricing claims about DDR, claiming that DDR had yet to be manufactured in volumes comparable to Direct Rambus DRAM.
planetit.com
Rambus, Dec 4, 2000
Rambus Inc. Fights “FUD”
"The FUD view is that RDRAM is a failed technology with no future. The facts as we see them are that after a great deal of effort on the part of Rambus and many of our partners in the semiconductor industry, RDRAM is solidly established as a mainstream standard.
electronicnews.com |
