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Strategies & Market Trends : How To Write Covered Calls - An Ongoing Real Case Study! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Herm who wrote (13621)	2/18/2001 12:35:12 AM
From: virgil vancleave	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 14162

Hi again herm and all: Looks like my bearish call was again correct. Market is down and near the lows of the year. Unfortunately, I have a feeling we will see more downside from here as we are now entranched in a downward trending channel on both the naz and the s & p indexes. I have done well since changing my stance from long to short since last posting. A nice 90% return lat month is good enough almost to quit for the year, except why do that? Had I kept my short position a little longer in emlx, my returns would have been far greater. I covered in the 90's. Bummer, but what can I say, I made some good profit on it, and chkp also. I covered a couple on friday worth looking at on the short side if we see any strength. sfnt and igt. Look at how much debt igt has.... OUCH , it is crying in debt pain. A debt to equity ratio of 6 is just too high. I will short it some more above 52 for a sure winner. sfnt is quite high in valuation and a little more risky on the short side since it has a nice looking chart and no debt. The other short I covered this week and looking to get back in is ppdi. It keeps hitting the resistance at just above 56 and falls back. The chart for it looks good also. Another one I like is aeos, a retailer. I like it short at 60, and cover in the low 50's. Look at a longer term chart and you will see what I am talking about as far as overhead resistance. And, for my only open postion presently, ccmp. Quite overvalued using a price to sales model, and a nice chart to boot. The other day (when I shorted it), the stock had what I think may well be an exhuastion gap. Up 17 a share on increasing volume, the most in the stocks history. It is an excellent short candidate with a target price in the 80's next week. If I were to be long anything at present, it would be some gold miners. There are a few nearing what I call must buy valuations though. A few ... pcti (with over $6 a share in cash and no debt), merx (at <=12), sfam (although it is not as attractive as it was in december when I was long), mtsn, klic, and a few others. I will try and post some others if I get time this weekend. Unfortunately, I went back to work this past week. One thing for certain, I proved beyond any doubt to my wife tha I can make a living off the market if I had to; in fact, I made over 6 times what I make at my job which is pretty good considering I make around 50k a year. Good luck all and be careful on the long side. If the 2400 level doesn't hold for the naz, it is in big trouble and I think we could easily see 1500. Just my opinion of course.