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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (69311)	2/16/2001 1:03:14 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

First, as I'm sure you know, extreme sentiment readings can both endure and become more extreme. >> >> also, it's possible that the reversal up to a buy signal on sentiment indicators (remember how bullish larry mcmillan was a couple of weeks ago), was a bull trap, in an ongoing bear market. also the ratio of rydex otc bull/bear leveraged funds have been ranging from about 98% bullish money at the sept top, have given back only a few percentage points, not much capitulation there. also note cramer, the 30 top asked about symbols were tech. the sentiment picture is far from giving an all clear extreme reading.

To: lurqer who wrote (69311)	2/17/2001 3:00:54 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Re Bearish Sentiment Getting More Bearish: Two comments are in order; first, it's impossible to ever have a clear as a bell signal of capitulation that is accepted by most Market participants. If a large number of investors/traders recognized the development of such a signal, they would alter their investment behavior and the Market low would never fully develop. I believe that is why Jake Bernstein's DSI's are more accurate than the Investors Intelligence survey since it became popular. Bernstein has limited? credibility and exposure, so not many people change their behavior based on his data. 2nd: I am willing to hold as long as it takes once I've completed my buying. I held one position last year from March 31st till late August before the sell signal came. The shorter time horizon used by most MDD traders demands a different approach. This may not be the ultimate bottom, but it's close enough that I'm pretty sure I'll have a profit by the time a bullish consensus develops.