Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: oldirtybastard who wrote (68792)	2/16/2001 4:28:43 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

You make a good point, but I think it is worthwhile to recognize that the legion of indicator users are almost all relatively new to TA and rely too heavily on them. Most probably do not take the time to understand them either. For the most part, I think they are a waste of time. One should not assume that all chart watchers are into that silliness. I use TA, but really only for patterns and S/R.

To: oldirtybastard who wrote (68792)	2/16/2001 4:31:48 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 436258

Oh yea, GE is almost assuredly telling their broadcast arm to warn Americans of the dangers of borrowing and buying wildly overpriced stocks....

To: oldirtybastard who wrote (68792)	2/16/2001 4:47:19 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

i believe you have a very good idea there...you may remember, i have expounded the notion of 'indicator failure' for quite some time now. and i also expect the press to become more vociferous in its recently somewhat negatively tinged reporting on Wall Street - for the very reasons you cite. btw, the fact that deteriorating fundamentals haven't had much of an effect (aside from on the NAZ of course) tells me that the market is like a coiled spring, that has stored a lot of potential negative energy - the right catalyst will release it all at once.

To: oldirtybastard who wrote (68792)	2/16/2001 9:33:43 PM
From: Earlie	Respond to of 436258

ODB: I agree with you that the charts don't seem to be leading the purists to their early retirement dreams with quite the gusto that they did two years ago. Personally, I share MB's views which are: - There has never been a successful money manager who depended on charts. - Charts relate to trends and trends continue until they don't. Personally, I pay attention to them, but only because so many investors rely on them and it is useful to know what the herd is thinking. There are no known laws of man or nature that guarantee the extrapolated line. (g) I may well be wrong, but it looks to me as though fundamentals are (finally) having more impact. Still not always the case, but certainly more than when the mania was in full swing. They sure as heck take mighty bites out of stocks that report disappointing numbers or warn of reduced earnings ahead these days. Best, Earlie

To: oldirtybastard who wrote (68792)	2/16/2001 10:15:22 PM
From: sandeep	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Actually, I think that charts are working great. NDX-100 went into sell mode after it broke 2500 while DOW will do so if it falls below 10600. Otherwise long the dow and short the ndx-100 from a few days ago would have netted a lot of money. Just imho. Of course, fundamental analysis is very important to understand the bigger picture, but mania can continue for a long time. E.g. fundamentalists will figure out end of bear market before the chartists, but could still lose money by putting it where their mouth is for some time...

To: oldirtybastard who wrote (68792)	2/18/2001 4:11:42 PM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

I think technical indicators should work less and less every day because they have such an unbelievably large following, of course not new information for you...I envision that eventually, before we find bottom, people will start to hate charts almost as much as they will hate stocks, as the clowns will blame the charts for getting themselves trapped. As soon as people start to feel duped, the real selling should start... Amen to that. I couldn't agree more. The charts may help daytraders, as they always will, but not any more for buy and hold types. Many charts have made classic bottoms, only to see the stocks go lower over time in the last year. Same with the indexes. How many bulls have called a bottom based off of TA over the last year? Basically everyone. We are getting into waters where we don't know if the next day is up 10%, or down 10%. Could any type of TA predict the Naz up 12% when AG gave the surprise rate cut? Of course not, probably the same with the coming wipeout. If it's obvious on the charts, many of the TA heads will line themselves up and end up covering and they themselves will prevent the crash. When the real selling starts, I don't think the bears will be positioned and the bulls won't be expecting it. That will be the only type of environment that will allow the crash. If the bears see it coming, they will prevent it themselves. As an example, take the day the Naz was up 12% when AG cut. The environment had the shorts positioned for down and the bulls on the sidelines looking for something. When AG cut, the bears said "oh shit" and looked to get out at any cost and the bulls used their money to pile in. [not me, held my Crisco short knowing it would go lower over time] The reverse will have to be true when real selling starts. The bears will have to have money looking to sell any bounce and the bulls will have to be fully invested looking to get out at any cost. JMHO chic PS- pretty amazing crash at Daytona